Job gain and job loss dynamics in the truck transportation industry

Every year, roughly 27% of all jobs in the truck transportation sector (NAICS 484) are reshuffled across motor carriers as existing carriers grow or shrink, new entrants begin operations, and existing firms exit. We take a first look at job gain and job loss dynamics in truck transportation, with a special emphasis on the roles of carrier age and job gain and loss dynamics in the manufacturing sector, the source for most trucking ton-miles. In doing so, we draw on and extend theory in both supply chain management and economics. We test our predictions using archival administrative data covering 1995 through 2019 from the Census Bureau's Business Dynamics Statistics program that tracks the universe of truck transportation firms with employees. Results from fitting a series of mixed effects models provide strong evidence that job gain and job loss dynamics at trucking firms decline rapidly as carriers age. We further find these age-related dynamics are moderated by employment dynamics in the manufacturing sector. Robustness testing shows job gains and losses dynamics in manufacturing are more predictive than the same dynamics in the distribution sector (wholesaling, retailing, and warehousing). We discuss implications of these findings for theory and practice.