热带海洋表面温度变化及其对中国油料作物产量的影响

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI:10.1029/2023EF004251
Yi Zhou, Tianyi Zhang, Xichen Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在中国等食用植物油自给率较低的地区,了解气候多变性如何影响油籽产量对于确保稳定的油料供应至关重要。在这里,我们发现了三大海洋盆地海面温度(SST)异常年际变率和作物产量百分率异常的一致模式,然后量化了这些SST模式对油料作物产量异常的贡献。我们的分析表明,在全国范围内,六种热带 SST 模式合计占中国大豆、油菜籽和花生产量异常的 51%、52% 和 33%。热带印度洋变率对大豆和花生产量变化的影响最大,而对油菜籽产量异常影响最大的是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动。最后,本研究利用当地气象变量的变化,研究了 SST 模式变化影响油籽作物产量的具体方式。我们的研究结果揭示了热带 SST 变率与油籽作物产量之间的关系,为我们详细了解 SST 模式与油籽作物产量之间的各种联系提供了依据。这项研究加深了我们对气候多变性对农业影响的认识,为制定战略以减轻气候多变性对中国油料作物生产的不利影响提供了有价值的见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Its Impact on Oilseed Crop Yields in China

Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Its Impact on Oilseed Crop Yields in China

Understanding how climate variability affects oilseed yields is crucial for ensuring a stable oil supply in regions such as China, where self-sufficiency in edible vegetable oils is low. Here, we found coherent patterns in the interannual variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and percent crop yield anomalies in the three ocean basins, and then quantified the contribution of these SST modes to oilseed crop yield anomalies. Our analysis revealed that, at the national level, the six tropical SST modes collectively accounted for 51% of soybean, 52% of rapeseed, and 33% of peanut yield anomalies in China. Tropical Indian Ocean variability exerts the greatest impact on soybean and peanut yield variability, whereas the most significant impact on rapeseed yield anomalies is attributed to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Finally, this study examined the specific ways in which changes in SST modes can affect oilseed crop yields using changes in local meteorological variables. Our findings revealed the relationship between tropical SST variability and oilseed crop yields, providing a detailed understanding of the diverse connections between SST modes and oilseed crop yield. This study deepens our knowledge of the influence of climate variability on agriculture, offering valuable insights for devising strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability on oilseed crop production in China.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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