Disentangling mechanisms behind emerged sea surface temperature anomalies in Indonesian seas during El Niño years: insights from closed heat budget analysis

A surface layer (upper 20 m depth) heat budget analysis, derived from a hindcast regional-scale ocean modeling experiment, was employed to examine the underlying mechanisms behind the emergence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Indonesian seas during El Niño events over the 1995–2019 course. Prior to the emergence of warm SSTA, which typically appeared following the mature phase of El Niño and lasted for almost a year, apparent anomalous heat accumulation occurred for at least 2–4 months and peaked in conjunction with the climatic event. Further examination revealed possible east–west distinct dynamics in the heat budget variations within the region during El Niño years. The anomalous heat accumulation in the western part of Indonesian seas (Java Sea) was predominantly caused by modulation in the surface net heat flux. Whereas in the eastern part (Banda Sea), the ocean circulation also exerted important influence in addition to the surface net heat flux. The ocean circulation in the eastern Indonesian seas notably contributed to moderate the effect of surface net heat flux during El Niño growth. Moreover, the same ocean circulation was responsible for prolonging the anomalous heat accumulation in the eastern Indonesian seas from mature to decay phase of the El Niño, ultimately resulted in warmer SSTA than that in the western part. The study conducted here provides additional insights on how the Indonesian seas responded to the El Niño and further reaffirms the idea that the climatic event results in anomalous warming across the Indonesian seas.