Drought tolerance and species abundance mediate dry season negative density dependence in a tropical forest

Conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) is thought to be a key process in maintaining plant diversity. However, the strength of CNDD is highly variable in space and time as well as among species, and correlates of this variation that might help to understand and explain it remain largely unquantified. Using Bayesian hierarchical models, we took advantage of 10-year seedling monitoring data that were collected annually in every dry and rainy season in a seasonal tropical forest. We quantified the interspecific variation in the strength of CNDD and its temporal variation. We also examined potential correlates of this interspecific and temporal variation, including species functional traits (such as drought-tolerant traits, defense-related traits, and recourse acquisition traits) and species abundances. In the dry season, we found a negative relationship between the density of neighboring conspecific seedlings on seedling survival, while in the rainy season, there was a negative relationship between the density of neighboring conspecific adults on seedling survival. In addition, we found that interspecific variation in CNDD was related to drought-tolerant traits in the dry season but not in the rainy season. Across years, we found that drought-intolerant species suffer less CNDD during the dry seasons that have higher rainfall, whereas drought-tolerant species suffer less CNDD when the dry season has lower rainfall. We also found that rare species suffered stronger CNDD in the dry season. Overall, our study highlights that CNDD is highly variable among species and through time, necessitating a deeper appreciation of the environmental and functional contexts of CNDD and their interactions.