Seismicity changes and numerical simulation of coseismic deformation following the 2022 Ms6.8 Luding earthquake in Sichuan, China

The Xianshuihe fault is a major tectonic boundary between the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic and Bayanhar blocks in Southwest China. With an average left-lateral strike-slip movement of 10–15 mm/yr, it is a fast-moving strike-slip continental fault. On September 5, 2022, the M_s6.8 Luding earthquake occurred along the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault, reaching a maximum intensity of IX and resulting in a significant number of casualties and severe property damage. This earthquake broke the long-standing seismic quiescence of the Xianshuihe fault, which lasted for more than 40 years, and was followed by a significant number of aftershocks. An outstanding question is how the behavior of the Xianshuihe fault and major earthquakes changed following this mainshock. In this study, we examined the changes in regional seismicity following the Luding earthquake and identified the potential for future strong earthquakes along the Xianshuihe fault. We used a finite element numerical method to simulate the environment of the seismogenic fault and its adjacent areas. In addition, we used the coseismic slip model of the Luding earthquake with the split-node method to calculate how the stress and strain fields in the surrounding area were affected by the 2022 mainshock. Coulomb stress changes were resolved in the main faults, and the seismicity of adjacent faults was analyzed in conjunction with the observed seismic data. The results indicate that regional tectonic movement primarily occurred to the southeast along the Moxi segment. The stress field is approximately north-south in tension and east-west in compression. Variation in the stress field in the epicentral region of the Luding earthquake exceeded 1 MPa. The maximum displacement of the coseismic deformation field was concentrated between Moxi town and Tuanjie village, and the Coulomb stress of the fault zone in this region experienced the largest decrease. However, the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship at the epicenter and the surrounding area exhibited an abnormal pattern of decrease-decrease-increase, indicating that the regional stress may not be fully released. This earthquake increased the Coulomb stress in other segments of the Xianshuihe, Anninghe, and Daliangshan faults, whereas the Coulomb stress in the Longmenshan and Xiaojinhe fault zones decreased. In addition, it triggered a series of normal-fault, moderate-sized earthquakes in nearby areas. The Dagangshan reservoir, located ∼20 km from the epicenter of the Luding earthquake, received an increase of ∼5.3 MPa in the tensile stress along the NWW-SEE direction. The Xiluodu Reservoir, located approximately 225 km from the epicenter, was less affected by this earthquake, and the seismic activity near the reservoir remained relatively unchanged. In this study, post-earthquake seismicity in the vicinity of the M_s6.8 Luding earthquake was analyzed and predicted by numerical simulation, providing a scientific basis for earthquake prediction and disaster reduction.