Ethnic Disproportionality in the Child Welfare System: A Welsh Linked Administrative Data Study for 2011–2020

Children’s chances of contact with the child welfare system at different stages vary significantly by their ethnicity. This study goes beyond recent UK studies on the scale of ethnic differences in children in care or on protection plans by improving data completeness through data linkage, considering the ethnic patterns in the wider population of children in need or receiving care and support, and reporting trends over time. We contribute to the literature on ethnic disproportionality in the child welfare system by reporting the patterns in Wales from 2011 to 2020. The trend of ethnic disproportionality was distinct from the changes in the absolute number of children in the child social welfare system by ethnicity. Over the ten-year period, Mixed-heritage children were the most overrepresented and Asian children the most underrepresented, with fluctuations in the level of overrepresentation between 1.1 and 1.5 and underrepresentation between 0.5 and 0.7. The level of representation for Black children fluctuated considerably between 0.8 and 1.2 over the years. The overall level of ethnic disproportionality in Wales increased from 2011 to 2016 and then decreased from 2017 to 2020. Ethnic disproportionality appeared more pronounced amongst girls and in age groups zero to four and sixteen to seventeen.