城市萎缩视角下人口城镇化与土地城镇化的耦合协调与互动关系:中国江苏省的案例研究

Shao-Jun Chen, Qi Dai, Xiao-Yan Liu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

引言方法:本文从城市收缩的视角,通过CCD模型和空间自相关模型,探讨江苏省土地城镇化(LU)和人口城镇化(PU)的耦合协调性(CCD)和地理分布。构建面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,深入研究了 2007-2020 年 13 个城市 PU-LU 之间的复杂互动关系:研究发现,在研究期间,上述各城市的 PU-LU CCD 在时间序列上呈现出协同递增的演变趋势。此外,从空间特征来看,PU 和 LU 的 CCD 呈现出显著的全局正空间自相关性,且人口规模高增长城市的 CCD 远远大于人口规模持续增长城市的 CCD。最后,PU 与 LU 之间存在交互响应关系。PU 影响 LU,但 PU 本身又受其系统内部结构的影响。PU 对 LU 的影响呈现出 "倒 U 型 "的正累积效应:此外,本文还建议根据 3 种城市萎缩类型的资源禀赋差异,制定政策以确保 PU-LU 的协调增长。通过提高土地集约利用程度和户籍改革,建立流动人口与城市建设用地之间的联系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Coupling coordination and interactive relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization from the perspective of shrinking cities: a case study of Jiangsu province, China
Introduction: Urban contraction brings about certain impacts on the advancement of urbanization.Methods: This paper explores the coupling coordination (CCD) and geographical distribution of land urbanization (LU) and population urbanization (PU) in Jiangsu Province through a CCD model and a spatial autocorrelation model from the perspective of shrinking cities. The Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model is constructed to deeply investigate the complex interaction between the PU-LU in 13 cities, 2007-2020.Results: The study found that the PU-LU CCD in each of the above-mentioned cities shows a synergistic incremental evolution during the study period in terms of time series. In addition, in terms of spatial characteristics, the CCD of PU and LU shows significant positive global spatial autocorrelation, and the CCD of cities with high population size growth is much larger than that of cities with continuous population size. Last, there is an interactive response relationship between PU and LU. PU influences LU, however, PU itself is influenced by its own system’s internal structure. The impact of PU on LU shows a positive cumulative effect of the “inverted U shape.”Discussion: Furthermore, this paper proposes that policies be created to ensure the coordinated growth of PU-LU based on the differences in resource endowments of cities with 3 types of urban shrinkage. The link between floating population and construction land for cities should be established through enhancing the extent of intensive land use and reforming household registration.
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