某些因素对俄罗斯特大城市房地产市场定价的影响

S. Mudrova, V. Bolonkin, A. E. Davydov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

作者在文章中分析了俄罗斯联邦最大城市莫斯科和圣彼得堡住宅房地产市场的定价情况。住宅房地产成本问题是俄罗斯特大城市居民最关心的问题之一。特大城市是最大的移民中心,既有来自其他地区的移民,也有来自其他国家的移民。这些城市的人口正以显著的速度增长,建筑业也在不断提高新房地产项目的建设速度。在这种情况下,实现房地产价值与关键外部因素的依存关系至关重要。在本研究框架内,作者依据的是房地产估价和统计方法领域的著作。作者小组就某些因素的影响提出了统计假设,特别是累积通货膨胀水平、俄罗斯联邦中央银行设定的关键利率、地区平均工资水平和公民抵押贷款加权平均利率对俄罗斯城市每平方米住房加权平均成本形成的影响。回归模型可以估算重要因素对住宅房地产每平方米成本的影响程度。通过这些模型可以评估俄罗斯特大城市一级和二级住宅房地产市场的房地产成本变化趋势,还可以考虑各因素对不同城市不同类型市场的影响差异。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
IMPACT OF SOME FACTORS ON PRICING IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET OF RUSSIAN MEGACITIES
The authors analyze pricing in the residential real estate market in Moscow and St. Petersburg – the largest cities of the Russian Federation in the article. The issue of the cost of residential real estate is one of the most important for the residents of Russian megapolises. Megapolicies are the largest centers of migration, both from other regions and from other countries. The population of such cities is expanding at a significant rate, and the construction industry is increasing the rate of creation of new real estate objects. Under such conditions, it is crucial to realize the dependence of real estate value and key externalities.Within the framework of the study, the authors rely on the works in the field of real estate valuation and statistical methodology. The group of authors puts forward statistical hypotheses about the impact of some factors, in particular the level of cumulative inflation, the key rate set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the average level of wages in the region and the weighted average rate on mortgage loans to citizens on the formation of the weighted average cost per square meter of housing in Russian cities.The statistical method of factor analysis is used to assess the significance of each of the factor variables on the resulting parameter. Regression modeling allows estimating the degree of impact of significant factors on the cost per square meter of residential real estate. The models allow to assess the trends of changes in the cost of real estate on the primary and secondary residential real estate markets in Russian megacities, as well as provide an opportunity to consider the differentiation in the impact of each factor between different types of markets in different cities.The results of the study may be useful in building industry forecasts and developing government measures to support residential construction.
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