Miaolei Hou , Yi Li , Asim Biswas , Xinguo Chen , Lulu Xie , Deli Liu , Linchao Li , Hao Feng , Shufang Wu , Yusuke Satoh , Alim Pulatov , Kadambot H.M. Siddique
{"title":"并发干旱威胁小麦和玉米产量，扩大未来作物产量差距","authors":"Miaolei Hou , Yi Li , Asim Biswas , Xinguo Chen , Lulu Xie , Deli Liu , Linchao Li , Hao Feng , Shufang Wu , Yusuke Satoh , Alim Pulatov , Kadambot H.M. Siddique","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104056","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><p>Drought poses a significant threat to global crop production. As the global community grapples with the escalating challenges of climate change, understanding the multifaceted impacts of concurrent drought on food security becomes imperative.</p></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><p>This study delved into the response of wheat and maize, key staples in the global food system, to different types of drought, with a particular focus on the yield gaps resulting from concurrent meteorological and agricultural drought.</p></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><p>The DSSAT-CERES model was adopted to simulate phenophase, rain-fed, and potential yields of maize and wheat in China from 1962 to 2100. Meteorological (Non-stationary Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, NSPEI) and agricultural (Standard Soil Moisture Index, SSMI) drought indices were calculated from crop seeding to maturity stages. We employed bivariate and multiple cross-wavelet as well as vine Copula to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the response of yield gaps to different drought types. Finally, we determined the relative dependence weights of maize and wheat on NSPEI and SSMI by least squares regression.</p></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><p>Spanning from 2022 to 2100, a trend of shortened growth periods for these crops were detected, accompanied by increasingly drier conditions. These situations exacerbated the crops' vulnerability to concurrent drought, leading to considerable yield reductions. Our projections indicated that future yield gaps due to concurrent drought could be, on average, 2–30% higher than those caused by single-type drought. Concurrent drought affected wheat (5–50%) more severely than maize (0–35%). Western regions would be more affected than the Eastern regions. Under the SSP (Shared socioeconomic pathway) 5-8.5 scenario in 2022–2100, all four crops would have higher dependence weights on SSMI (51–99%) than NSPEI (26–59%), emphasizing the critical role of soil moisture in agricultural drought monitoring and yield loss alleviation.</p></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><p>Our findings highlight the urgent need for integrated drought management strategies that address the compounded risks of concurrent drought, thereby contributing to the resilience of agricultural systems and global food security in a changing climate. Our research proposes to consider the relative weights of meteorological and agricultural drought in the future development of composite drought monitoring indicators for addressing food drought risk under climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"220 ","pages":"Article 104056"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Concurrent drought threaten wheat and maize production and widen crop yield gaps in the future\",\"authors\":\"Miaolei Hou , Yi Li , Asim Biswas , Xinguo Chen , Lulu Xie , Deli Liu , Linchao Li , Hao Feng , Shufang Wu , Yusuke Satoh , Alim Pulatov , Kadambot H.M. Siddique\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104056\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><p>Drought poses a significant threat to global crop production. As the global community grapples with the escalating challenges of climate change, understanding the multifaceted impacts of concurrent drought on food security becomes imperative.</p></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><p>This study delved into the response of wheat and maize, key staples in the global food system, to different types of drought, with a particular focus on the yield gaps resulting from concurrent meteorological and agricultural drought.</p></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><p>The DSSAT-CERES model was adopted to simulate phenophase, rain-fed, and potential yields of maize and wheat in China from 1962 to 2100. Meteorological (Non-stationary Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, NSPEI) and agricultural (Standard Soil Moisture Index, SSMI) drought indices were calculated from crop seeding to maturity stages. We employed bivariate and multiple cross-wavelet as well as vine Copula to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the response of yield gaps to different drought types. Finally, we determined the relative dependence weights of maize and wheat on NSPEI and SSMI by least squares regression.</p></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><p>Spanning from 2022 to 2100, a trend of shortened growth periods for these crops were detected, accompanied by increasingly drier conditions. These situations exacerbated the crops' vulnerability to concurrent drought, leading to considerable yield reductions. Our projections indicated that future yield gaps due to concurrent drought could be, on average, 2–30% higher than those caused by single-type drought. Concurrent drought affected wheat (5–50%) more severely than maize (0–35%). Western regions would be more affected than the Eastern regions. Under the SSP (Shared socioeconomic pathway) 5-8.5 scenario in 2022–2100, all four crops would have higher dependence weights on SSMI (51–99%) than NSPEI (26–59%), emphasizing the critical role of soil moisture in agricultural drought monitoring and yield loss alleviation.</p></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><p>Our findings highlight the urgent need for integrated drought management strategies that address the compounded risks of concurrent drought, thereby contributing to the resilience of agricultural systems and global food security in a changing climate. Our research proposes to consider the relative weights of meteorological and agricultural drought in the future development of composite drought monitoring indicators for addressing food drought risk under climate change.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7730,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Agricultural Systems\",\"volume\":\"220 \",\"pages\":\"Article 104056\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Agricultural Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X24002063\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Agricultural Systems","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X24002063","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Concurrent drought threaten wheat and maize production and widen crop yield gaps in the future
CONTEXT
Drought poses a significant threat to global crop production. As the global community grapples with the escalating challenges of climate change, understanding the multifaceted impacts of concurrent drought on food security becomes imperative.
OBJECTIVE
This study delved into the response of wheat and maize, key staples in the global food system, to different types of drought, with a particular focus on the yield gaps resulting from concurrent meteorological and agricultural drought.
METHODS
The DSSAT-CERES model was adopted to simulate phenophase, rain-fed, and potential yields of maize and wheat in China from 1962 to 2100. Meteorological (Non-stationary Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, NSPEI) and agricultural (Standard Soil Moisture Index, SSMI) drought indices were calculated from crop seeding to maturity stages. We employed bivariate and multiple cross-wavelet as well as vine Copula to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the response of yield gaps to different drought types. Finally, we determined the relative dependence weights of maize and wheat on NSPEI and SSMI by least squares regression.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Spanning from 2022 to 2100, a trend of shortened growth periods for these crops were detected, accompanied by increasingly drier conditions. These situations exacerbated the crops' vulnerability to concurrent drought, leading to considerable yield reductions. Our projections indicated that future yield gaps due to concurrent drought could be, on average, 2–30% higher than those caused by single-type drought. Concurrent drought affected wheat (5–50%) more severely than maize (0–35%). Western regions would be more affected than the Eastern regions. Under the SSP (Shared socioeconomic pathway) 5-8.5 scenario in 2022–2100, all four crops would have higher dependence weights on SSMI (51–99%) than NSPEI (26–59%), emphasizing the critical role of soil moisture in agricultural drought monitoring and yield loss alleviation.
SIGNIFICANCE
Our findings highlight the urgent need for integrated drought management strategies that address the compounded risks of concurrent drought, thereby contributing to the resilience of agricultural systems and global food security in a changing climate. Our research proposes to consider the relative weights of meteorological and agricultural drought in the future development of composite drought monitoring indicators for addressing food drought risk under climate change.
期刊介绍：
Agricultural Systems is an international journal that deals with interactions - among the components of agricultural systems, among hierarchical levels of agricultural systems, between agricultural and other land use systems, and between agricultural systems and their natural, social and economic environments.
The scope includes the development and application of systems analysis methodologies in the following areas:
Systems approaches in the sustainable intensification of agriculture; pathways for sustainable intensification; crop-livestock integration; farm-level resource allocation; quantification of benefits and trade-offs at farm to landscape levels; integrative, participatory and dynamic modelling approaches for qualitative and quantitative assessments of agricultural systems and decision making;
The interactions between agricultural and non-agricultural landscapes; the multiple services of agricultural systems; food security and the environment;
Global change and adaptation science; transformational adaptations as driven by changes in climate, policy, values and attitudes influencing the design of farming systems;
Development and application of farming systems design tools and methods for impact, scenario and case study analysis; managing the complexities of dynamic agricultural systems; innovation systems and multi stakeholder arrangements that support or promote change and (or) inform policy decisions.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
