Mónica López-Lacort , Ana Corberán-Vallet , Francisco J. Santonja , Cintia Muñoz-Quiles , Javier Díez-Domingo , Alejandro Orrico-Sánchez
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Differences in endpoints, populations, and timeframes between trials make the two products’ efficacy difficult to compare.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>A seasonal with catch-up program, assuming a constant effectiveness of 79.5 % during the first 5 months followed by a linear decay to 0 by month 10 with nirsevimab, would prevent between 5121 and 8,846RSV bronchiolitis per 100,000 infants-years. Assuming 77.3 % effectiveness with the same decay, between 976and 16,86RSV-hospitalizations per 100,000 infants-years could be prevented depending on the uptake. A year-round maternal immunization program, with 51 % of effectiveness during the first 6 months followed by a linear decay to 0 by month 10 would prevent between 3,246and 5,606RSV bronchiolitis cases per 100,000 infants-years. Assuming 56.9 % effectiveness with the same decay, between 713 and 1231 RSV-hospitalizations per 100,000 infants-years could be prevented.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Our results suggest that each strategy would effectively reduce RSV-bronchiolitis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16087,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection and Public Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034124002260/pdfft?md5=e63986ac4a0de54c7f9089a5b5a4d6f4&pid=1-s2.0-S1876034124002260-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Potential impact of nirsevimab and bivalent maternal vaccine against RSV bronchiolitis in infants: A population-based modelling study\",\"authors\":\"Mónica López-Lacort , Ana Corberán-Vallet , Francisco J. Santonja , Cintia Muñoz-Quiles , Javier Díez-Domingo , Alejandro Orrico-Sánchez\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jiph.2024.102492\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>A new monoclonal antibody (nirsevimab; Beyfortus®) and a bivalent prefusion RSV vaccine (Abrysvo®) for maternal immunization have been approved recently. This is a modelling study to estimate the potential impact of different immunization programs with these products on RSV-bronchiolitis.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Population-based real-world data from primary care and hospitalizations were considered. RSV bronchiolitis dynamics in absence of these immunization scenarios were explained by a multivariate age-structured Bayesian model. Then, the potential impact was simulated under different assumptions including the most recent clinical trial data. Differences in endpoints, populations, and timeframes between trials make the two products’ efficacy difficult to compare.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>A seasonal with catch-up program, assuming a constant effectiveness of 79.5 % during the first 5 months followed by a linear decay to 0 by month 10 with nirsevimab, would prevent between 5121 and 8,846RSV bronchiolitis per 100,000 infants-years. Assuming 77.3 % effectiveness with the same decay, between 976and 16,86RSV-hospitalizations per 100,000 infants-years could be prevented depending on the uptake. A year-round maternal immunization program, with 51 % of effectiveness during the first 6 months followed by a linear decay to 0 by month 10 would prevent between 3,246and 5,606RSV bronchiolitis cases per 100,000 infants-years. 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Potential impact of nirsevimab and bivalent maternal vaccine against RSV bronchiolitis in infants: A population-based modelling study
Background
A new monoclonal antibody (nirsevimab; Beyfortus®) and a bivalent prefusion RSV vaccine (Abrysvo®) for maternal immunization have been approved recently. This is a modelling study to estimate the potential impact of different immunization programs with these products on RSV-bronchiolitis.
Methods
Population-based real-world data from primary care and hospitalizations were considered. RSV bronchiolitis dynamics in absence of these immunization scenarios were explained by a multivariate age-structured Bayesian model. Then, the potential impact was simulated under different assumptions including the most recent clinical trial data. Differences in endpoints, populations, and timeframes between trials make the two products’ efficacy difficult to compare.
Results
A seasonal with catch-up program, assuming a constant effectiveness of 79.5 % during the first 5 months followed by a linear decay to 0 by month 10 with nirsevimab, would prevent between 5121 and 8,846RSV bronchiolitis per 100,000 infants-years. Assuming 77.3 % effectiveness with the same decay, between 976and 16,86RSV-hospitalizations per 100,000 infants-years could be prevented depending on the uptake. A year-round maternal immunization program, with 51 % of effectiveness during the first 6 months followed by a linear decay to 0 by month 10 would prevent between 3,246and 5,606RSV bronchiolitis cases per 100,000 infants-years. Assuming 56.9 % effectiveness with the same decay, between 713 and 1231 RSV-hospitalizations per 100,000 infants-years could be prevented.
Conclusions
Our results suggest that each strategy would effectively reduce RSV-bronchiolitis.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Infection and Public Health, first official journal of the Saudi Arabian Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences and the Saudi Association for Public Health, aims to be the foremost scientific, peer-reviewed journal encompassing infection prevention and control, microbiology, infectious diseases, public health and the application of healthcare epidemiology to the evaluation of health outcomes. The point of view of the journal is that infection and public health are closely intertwined and that advances in one area will have positive consequences on the other.
The journal will be useful to all health professionals who are partners in the management of patients with communicable diseases, keeping them up to date. The journal is proud to have an international and diverse editorial board that will assist and facilitate the publication of articles that reflect a global view on infection control and public health, as well as emphasizing our focus on supporting the needs of public health practitioners.
It is our aim to improve healthcare by reducing risk of infection and related adverse outcomes by critical review, selection, and dissemination of new and relevant information in the field of infection control, public health and infectious diseases in all healthcare settings and the community.
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