Rachel Sze Jen Goh , Bryan Chong , Jayanth Jayabaskaran , Silingga Metta Jauhari , Siew Pang Chan , Martin Tze Wah Kueh , Kannan Shankar , Henry Li , Yip Han Chin , Gwyneth Kong , Vickram Vijay Anand , Keith Andrew Chan , Indah Sukmawati , Sue Anne Toh , Mark Muthiah , Jiong-Wei Wang , Gary Tse , Anurag Mehta , Alan Fong , Lohendran Baskaran , Nicholas W.S. Chew
{"title":"2025 至 2050 年亚洲心血管疾病负担：对东亚、南亚、东南亚、中亚和高收入亚太地区的预测分析","authors":"Rachel Sze Jen Goh , Bryan Chong , Jayanth Jayabaskaran , Silingga Metta Jauhari , Siew Pang Chan , Martin Tze Wah Kueh , Kannan Shankar , Henry Li , Yip Han Chin , Gwyneth Kong , Vickram Vijay Anand , Keith Andrew Chan , Indah Sukmawati , Sue Anne Toh , Mark Muthiah , Jiong-Wei Wang , Gary Tse , Anurag Mehta , Alan Fong , Lohendran Baskaran , Nicholas W.S. Chew","doi":"10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>This was supported by the <span>NUHS</span> Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), <span>National Medical Research Council</span> Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), <span>National University of Singapore</span> Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, <span>NUHS</span> Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative <span>Enterprise</span> (CADENCE) <span>National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01)</span>.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":22792,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 101138"},"PeriodicalIF":7.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606524001329/pdfft?md5=5a82783d353f53e98e639f02f082160c&pid=1-s2.0-S2666606524001329-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions\",\"authors\":\"Rachel Sze Jen Goh , Bryan Chong , Jayanth Jayabaskaran , Silingga Metta Jauhari , Siew Pang Chan , Martin Tze Wah Kueh , Kannan Shankar , Henry Li , Yip Han Chin , Gwyneth Kong , Vickram Vijay Anand , Keith Andrew Chan , Indah Sukmawati , Sue Anne Toh , Mark Muthiah , Jiong-Wei Wang , Gary Tse , Anurag Mehta , Alan Fong , Lohendran Baskaran , Nicholas W.S. 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The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions
Background
Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.
Methods
Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.
Findings
Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).
Interpretation
This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.
Funding
This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).
期刊介绍：
The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific, a gold open access journal, is an integral part of The Lancet's global initiative advocating for healthcare quality and access worldwide. It aims to advance clinical practice and health policy in the Western Pacific region, contributing to enhanced health outcomes. The journal publishes high-quality original research shedding light on clinical practice and health policy in the region. It also includes reviews, commentaries, and opinion pieces covering diverse regional health topics, such as infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, child and adolescent health, maternal and reproductive health, aging health, mental health, the health workforce and systems, and health policy.
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