Maria Teresa Giraudo, Manuele Falcone, Cesare Cislaghi, Francesca Cordero, Simone Pernice, Roberta Sirovich
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One of the methods to understand whether determinants are simultaneous or develop through contiguity between different areas is the study of the diagnostic replication index RDt among regions.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>to introduce the analysis of RDt variability and the subsequent application of a recently introduced functional clustering method as highly useful procedures for recognizing the presence of clusters with similar trends in epidemic curves.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>within the considered period, trends in regional RDt are analyzed in detail over four different time intervals.</p><p><strong>Setting and participants: </strong>to exemplify this methodology, the study of variability in the period from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022 may be of interest.</p><p><strong>Main outcomes measures: </strong>the variability in the regional RDt indices is assessed by means of the correlation coefficient weighted with respect to the populations of the individual regions. The clustering procedure is applied to the time series of absolute RDt values.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>it emerges that the periods of increasing variability in the RDt correspond to the initial growth or decrease in the number of infections, while functional clustering identifies macro-areas in which the epidemic curves have had similar trends. What caused contagions to increase seems to relate to a factor that is not specific to certain areas, with the contribution in some cases of a contagion dynamic between adjacent areas.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>the variability in the trend of regional diagnostic replication indices, which are calculated with only a few days delay, is a further indicator for the early detection of major changes in the trend of epidemic curves. The clustering of epidemic index curves may be useful to determine whether determinants act simultaneously or by contiguity between adjacent areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":50511,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologia & Prevenzione","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"[Synchronies and asynchronies in the development of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy].\",\"authors\":\"Maria Teresa Giraudo, Manuele Falcone, Cesare Cislaghi, Francesca Cordero, Simone Pernice, Roberta Sirovich\",\"doi\":\"10.19191/EP24.3.A676.054\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>the study of the possible determinants of the rise and fall of infections can be of great relevance, as was experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the methods to understand whether determinants are simultaneous or develop through contiguity between different areas is the study of the diagnostic replication index RDt among regions.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>to introduce the analysis of RDt variability and the subsequent application of a recently introduced functional clustering method as highly useful procedures for recognizing the presence of clusters with similar trends in epidemic curves.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>within the considered period, trends in regional RDt are analyzed in detail over four different time intervals.</p><p><strong>Setting and participants: </strong>to exemplify this methodology, the study of variability in the period from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022 may be of interest.</p><p><strong>Main outcomes measures: </strong>the variability in the regional RDt indices is assessed by means of the correlation coefficient weighted with respect to the populations of the individual regions. The clustering procedure is applied to the time series of absolute RDt values.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>it emerges that the periods of increasing variability in the RDt correspond to the initial growth or decrease in the number of infections, while functional clustering identifies macro-areas in which the epidemic curves have had similar trends. What caused contagions to increase seems to relate to a factor that is not specific to certain areas, with the contribution in some cases of a contagion dynamic between adjacent areas.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>the variability in the trend of regional diagnostic replication indices, which are calculated with only a few days delay, is a further indicator for the early detection of major changes in the trend of epidemic curves. 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[Synchronies and asynchronies in the development of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy].
Background: the study of the possible determinants of the rise and fall of infections can be of great relevance, as was experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the methods to understand whether determinants are simultaneous or develop through contiguity between different areas is the study of the diagnostic replication index RDt among regions.
Objectives: to introduce the analysis of RDt variability and the subsequent application of a recently introduced functional clustering method as highly useful procedures for recognizing the presence of clusters with similar trends in epidemic curves.
Design: within the considered period, trends in regional RDt are analyzed in detail over four different time intervals.
Setting and participants: to exemplify this methodology, the study of variability in the period from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022 may be of interest.
Main outcomes measures: the variability in the regional RDt indices is assessed by means of the correlation coefficient weighted with respect to the populations of the individual regions. The clustering procedure is applied to the time series of absolute RDt values.
Results: it emerges that the periods of increasing variability in the RDt correspond to the initial growth or decrease in the number of infections, while functional clustering identifies macro-areas in which the epidemic curves have had similar trends. What caused contagions to increase seems to relate to a factor that is not specific to certain areas, with the contribution in some cases of a contagion dynamic between adjacent areas.
Conclusions: the variability in the trend of regional diagnostic replication indices, which are calculated with only a few days delay, is a further indicator for the early detection of major changes in the trend of epidemic curves. The clustering of epidemic index curves may be useful to determine whether determinants act simultaneously or by contiguity between adjacent areas.
期刊介绍：
Epidemiologia & Prevenzione, oggi organo della Associazione italiana di epidemiologia, raccoglie buona parte delle migliori e originali esperienze italiane di ricerca epidemiologica e di studio degli interventi per la prevenzione e la sanità pubblica.
La rivista – indicizzata su Medline e dotata di Impact Factor – è un canale importante anche per la segnalazione al pubblico internazionale di contributi che altrimenti circolerebbero soltanto in Italia.
E&P in questi decenni ha svolto una funzione di riferimento per la sanità pubblica ma anche per i cittadini e le loro diverse forme di aggregazione. Il principio che l’ha ispirata era, e rimane, che l’epidemiologia ha senso se è funzionale alla prevenzione e alla sanità pubblica e che la prevenzione ha ben poche possibilità di realizzarsi se non si fonda su valide basi scientifiche e se non c’è la partecipazione di tutti i soggetti interessati.
Modalità di comunicazione aggiornate, metodologia statistica ed epidemiologica rigorosa, validità degli studi e solidità delle interpretazioni dei risultati sono la solida matrice su cui E&P è costruita. A questa si accompagna una forte responsabilità etica verso la salute pubblica, che oggi ha ampliato in forma irreversibile il suo orizzonte, e include in forma sempre più consapevole non solo gli esseri umani, ma l’intero pianeta e le modificazioni che l’uomo apporta all’universo in cui vive.
L’ambizione è che l’offerta di nuovi strumenti di comunicazione, informazione e formazione, soprattutto attraverso l''uso di internet, renda la rivista non solo un tradizionale veicolo di contenuti e analisi scientifiche, ma anche un potente strumento a disposizione di una comunità di interessi e di valori che ha a cuore la salute pubblica.
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