{"title":"利用气候指数预测澳大利亚的国际游客人数","authors":"Christopher A. Craig","doi":"10.1108/ijtc-01-2024-0004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of climate on marine and urban tourism using climate indices in four of Australia’s busiest cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Climate is operationalized using the previously validated Holiday Climate Index (HCI)-beach for marine tourism HCI-urban for city tourism; international airport arrivals are the tourism behavior of interest.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>HCI-beach and-urban indices were calculated using climate data: thermal comfort, cloud cover, windspeed and precipitation. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were calculated for airport arrivals only and airport arrivals with exogenous factors (i.e. HCI-beach and-urban).</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>Indices proved significant for each city where HCI-urban scores were more favorable on the aggregate than HCI-beach scores. HCI-beach improved model accuracy in Melbourne (3.11%), Sydney (15.77%) and Perth (37.38%); HCI-urban improved accuracy at Brisbane by 37.73%.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Research limitations/implications</h3>\n<p>The primary limitation is that airport arrival data was only available monthly. Using aggregated arrivals also precludes explicitly determining recreational intentions among travelers.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Practical implications</h3>\n<p>Results demonstrate climate indices can improve forecast accuracy for actual tourism behaviors, including destination arrivals.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Social implications</h3>\n<p>For tourists, results demonstrate the meteorological season and city where climate conditions are more or less favorable.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first known study to investigate the influence of climate indices on improving predictability of international arrival forecasts.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":46072,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Tourism Cities","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Forecasting Australia’s international arrivals with climate indices\",\"authors\":\"Christopher A. Craig\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/ijtc-01-2024-0004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3>Purpose</h3>\\n<p>The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of climate on marine and urban tourism using climate indices in four of Australia’s busiest cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Climate is operationalized using the previously validated Holiday Climate Index (HCI)-beach for marine tourism HCI-urban for city tourism; international airport arrivals are the tourism behavior of interest.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\\n<p>HCI-beach and-urban indices were calculated using climate data: thermal comfort, cloud cover, windspeed and precipitation. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were calculated for airport arrivals only and airport arrivals with exogenous factors (i.e. HCI-beach and-urban).</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Findings</h3>\\n<p>Indices proved significant for each city where HCI-urban scores were more favorable on the aggregate than HCI-beach scores. HCI-beach improved model accuracy in Melbourne (3.11%), Sydney (15.77%) and Perth (37.38%); HCI-urban improved accuracy at Brisbane by 37.73%.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Research limitations/implications</h3>\\n<p>The primary limitation is that airport arrival data was only available monthly. Using aggregated arrivals also precludes explicitly determining recreational intentions among travelers.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Practical implications</h3>\\n<p>Results demonstrate climate indices can improve forecast accuracy for actual tourism behaviors, including destination arrivals.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Social implications</h3>\\n<p>For tourists, results demonstrate the meteorological season and city where climate conditions are more or less favorable.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\\n<p>To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first known study to investigate the influence of climate indices on improving predictability of international arrival forecasts.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\",\"PeriodicalId\":46072,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Tourism Cities\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Tourism Cities\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijtc-01-2024-0004\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Tourism Cities","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijtc-01-2024-0004","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM","Score":null,"Total":0}
Forecasting Australia’s international arrivals with climate indices
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of climate on marine and urban tourism using climate indices in four of Australia’s busiest cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Climate is operationalized using the previously validated Holiday Climate Index (HCI)-beach for marine tourism HCI-urban for city tourism; international airport arrivals are the tourism behavior of interest.
Design/methodology/approach
HCI-beach and-urban indices were calculated using climate data: thermal comfort, cloud cover, windspeed and precipitation. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were calculated for airport arrivals only and airport arrivals with exogenous factors (i.e. HCI-beach and-urban).
Findings
Indices proved significant for each city where HCI-urban scores were more favorable on the aggregate than HCI-beach scores. HCI-beach improved model accuracy in Melbourne (3.11%), Sydney (15.77%) and Perth (37.38%); HCI-urban improved accuracy at Brisbane by 37.73%.
Research limitations/implications
The primary limitation is that airport arrival data was only available monthly. Using aggregated arrivals also precludes explicitly determining recreational intentions among travelers.
Practical implications
Results demonstrate climate indices can improve forecast accuracy for actual tourism behaviors, including destination arrivals.
Social implications
For tourists, results demonstrate the meteorological season and city where climate conditions are more or less favorable.
Originality/value
To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first known study to investigate the influence of climate indices on improving predictability of international arrival forecasts.
期刊介绍：
A peer-reviewed journal, the International Journal of Tourism Cities provides an international forum for the critical study of urban tourism and tourism cities. The journal aims to be inter-disciplinary in its appreciation of tourism cities and tourism in urban areas, and welcomes original, theoretically-informed articles from those involved in the planning, management or marketing of tourism in city destination or places adjoining urban areas. Urban tourism and travel cover many disciplines and impinge on numerous aspects of daily life within cities. Moreover, they play a key role in domestic and international tourism in most countries, and cities often function as key travel gateways and tourism destinations. The International Journal of Tourism Cities contents include primary research articles, expert discussions on current urban tourism issues, and tourism city case studies. Articles are selected that are relevant to both academics and practitioners. The journal particularly encourages contributions on contemporary topics and issues in urban tourism including smart cities and tourism, environmental impact and sustainable tourism development in cities, citizen and stakeholder involvement in tourism, city destination governance, and the development of policies and standards for city tourism development. The International Journal of Tourism Cities has four distinct purposes: To encourage greater research and scholarship related to tourism in urban settings. To stimulate more interdisciplinary research on tourism in cities, particularly the integration of tourism and urban studies theories and principles. To generate more research studies on tourism at the edge of cities, where urban and rural areas converge. To create more literature on best practices in city tourism worldwide through in-depth analyses and the production of exemplary case studies.
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