气候和土地利用变化对巴西塞拉多盆地溪流的影响

IF 2.7 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI:10.1016/j.ecohyd.2024.05.004

Lorena Lima Ferraz, Lucas Farias de Sousa, Raildo Mota de Jesus, Kananda Andrade Costa, Carlos Amilton Silva Santos, Felizardo Adenilson Rocha

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究评估了气候变化和土地利用（LULC）对巴西塞拉多流域排水系统的影响。SWAT 模型在三个不同时期进行了校准和验证：第一时期（1990 年的 LULC，1980-1995 年的气象数据）、第二时期（2000 年的 LULC，1996-2005 年的气象数据）和第三时期（2015 年的 LULC，2006-2015 年的气象数据）。每个分析时段的性能 NSE、PBIAS 和 R² 统计系数以及流量持续时间曲线表明，该模型适合用于科伦蒂娜河水文流域的月度模拟。研究结果表明，土地利用和土地覆盖的变化对地表流量的影响比气候的变化更为强烈，在 36 年的研究中，排水量的减少是由于土地利用和土地覆盖的变化，特别是农业用水的变化造成的。这项研究的结果表明，有必要考虑气候变化和土地利用对决策的影响，为指导这个农业活动频繁、用水冲突不断的地区未来的水资源管理提供信息。

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Climate and land use changes impacts on streamflow in the Brazilian Cerrado basin

This study evaluated the effects of climate change and land use (LULC) on the discharge regime of a watershed located in the Brazilian Cerrado. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated in three different periods: period 1 (LULC of 1990 with meteorological data from 1980 to 1995), period 2 (LULC of 2000 with meteorological data from 1996 to 2005), and period 3 (LULC of 2015 with meteorological data from 2006 to 2015). The statistical coefficients of performance NSE, PBIAS and R² and the flow duration curves for each period of analysis showed that the model is suitable for use in simulations on a monthly scale in the hydrographic basin of the Correntina River. The results show that variations in land use and land cover affect surface flow more intensely than changes in climate, and that the reduction in discharge over the 36 years of the study is due to changes in land use and land cover, in particular the use of water for agriculture. The results of this study show that it is necessary to consider the implications of climate change and land use for decision making, providing information to guide the future management of water resources in a region of intense agricultural activity and with conflicts over water use.

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来源期刊

Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Aquatic Science

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

3.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology is an international journal that aims to advance ecohydrology as the study of the interplay between ecological and hydrological processes from molecular to river basin scales, and to promote its implementation as an integrative management tool to harmonize societal needs with biosphere potential.