Risk factors for mid- and long-term mortality in lung transplant recipients aged 70 years and older.

Objectives: With increased lung transplantation in those aged 70 and older, limited literature addresses risk factors affecting their survival. Our study aims to identify independent factors impacting mid- and long-term mortality in this elderly population.

Methods: This study analyzed lung transplant patients over 70 from May 2005 to December 2022 using United Network for Organ Sharing data. The 3- or 5-year cohort excluded multi-organ, secondary transplantation and loss to follow-up. Univariable Cox analysis was conducted to assess recipient, donor and transplant factors. Factors with a significance level of P < 0.2 were subsequently included in a multivariable Cox model to identify correlations with 3- and 5-year mortality in patients aged over 70.

Results: Multivariable analysis has identified key factors affecting 3- and 5-year mortality in elderly lung transplant patients over 70. Common notable factors include recipient total bilirubin, intensive care unit status at the time of transplantation, donor diabetes, Cytomegalovirus (CMV) mismatch and single lung transplantation. Additionally, Hispanic/Latino patients and ischaemia time of the transplant significantly impact the 3-year mortality, while recipient age, diabetes, nitric oxide use before transplantation and creatinine were identified as unique independent risk factors affecting the 5-year morality.

Conclusions: The study identified several independent risk factors that impact the mid- and long-term survival of lung transplantation for individuals over 70 years. These findings can contribute to the optimization of lung transplant treatment strategies and perioperative management in elderly patients, thereby enhancing the survival rate of this age group.