High-Speed Rail: A game changer for Spanish motorway transport?

Spain has deployed the world’s largest High-Speed Rail (HSR) network, in per capita terms, under the premise that this infrastructure provides a cleaner mode for reaching their environmental commitments. However, for observing environmental gains, there should be inter-modal substitution from polluter modes to the HSR. This paper analyzes the impact of new HSR openings on car traffic, using a Generalized and Staggered Difference-in-Difference approach. Unlike previous studies, we analyzes the entire Spanish HSR network. We matched the georeferenced data on car traffic with the origin–destination routes provided by Google Maps API to estimate the impact of the HSR on car traffic. We found that the HSR has not generated modal split, except for few of the HSR segments, in which we estimated a 6%–8% reduction in the annual average daily traffic. These results have public policy implications for the transport policy in the EU, and the effectiveness of decarbonization policies.