Back analysis of the shear strength parameters of 3D landslides with Bayesian approach and reliability theory

To establish an accurate model for determining the shear strength parameters of sliding surfaces while considering the variability and uncertainty of geotechnical parameters, a reliability back analysis method for parameters based on Bayesian theory and a three-dimensional slope stability analysis method are proposed in this paper. First, the prior information of shear strength parameters is updated according to the field test information based on Bayesian theory. Then, combined with the reliability theory, the influences of different two-dimensional and three-dimensional sliding surface shapes on the parameters back analysis are studied. The results show that the uncertainty of parameters decreases with the increase in the amount of test data after introducing the test data to update the mastered parameter information based on Bayesian theory, and it is of great significance to consider the shape and three-dimensional effect of the sliding surface accurately to improve the accuracy of parameter determination and slope stability analysis.