Jane Shaw MacDonald, Frithjof Lutscher, Yves Bourgault
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Climate change fluctuations can increase population abundance and range size
Climate change threatens many species by a poleward/upward movement of their thermal niche. While we know that faster movement has stronger impacts, little is known on how fluctuations of niche movement affect population outcomes. Environmental fluctuations often affect populations negatively, but theory and experiments have revealed some positive effects. We study how fluctuations around the average speed of the niche impact a species' persistence, abundance and realized niche width under climate change. We find that the outcome depends on how fluctuations manifest and what the relative time scale of population growth and climate fluctuations are. When populations are close to extinction with the average speed, fluctuations around this average accelerate population decline. However, populations not yet close to extinction can increase in abundance and/or realized niche width from such fluctuations. Long-lived species increase more when their niche size remains constant, short-lived species increase more when their niche size varies.
期刊介绍:
Ecology Letters serves as a platform for the rapid publication of innovative research in ecology. It considers manuscripts across all taxa, biomes, and geographic regions, prioritizing papers that investigate clearly stated hypotheses. The journal publishes concise papers of high originality and general interest, contributing to new developments in ecology. Purely descriptive papers and those that only confirm or extend previous results are discouraged.