评估全球石油价格对泰国国内价格水平的影响:非线性 ARDL 调查

IF 8 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Chalermpon Jatuporn
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于泰国的能源需求严重依赖石油进口,因此石油价格在泰国的经济发展中起着举足轻重的作用。全球石油价格的波动直接对国内价格水平产生重大影响,从而影响到生产成本、通货膨胀和整体经济增长。为确保稳定和促进经济发展,理解并有效管理这些动态变化至关重要。因此,本研究旨在评估全球石油价格对泰国国内价格水平的影响,包括生产者价格指数、消费者价格指数和出口价格指数等关键指数,以及油棕、甘蔗、木薯、柴油和汽油醇等基本商品的价格。研究采用线性和非线性 ARDL 规格,分析 2005 年 1 月至 2023 年 6 月的月度时间序列数据,以揭示全球石油价格与产品价格水平之间关系的本质。实证结果表明,大多数产品价格对全球油价变化的反应是不对称的。然而,油棕价格表现出对称的反应,甘蔗价格在测试过程中没有显示出明显的模式。基于这些发现,本研究提出了短期和长期政策建议,旨在减轻国内石油价格波动的影响,确保能源稳定,促进未来的可持续发展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing the impact of global oil prices on domestic price levels in Thailand: A nonlinear ARDL investigation

Oil prices play a pivotal role in Thailand's economic development due to its heavy reliance on oil imports to meet its energy needs. Fluctuations in global oil prices directly and significantly impact domestic price levels, affecting production costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. To ensure stability and foster economic development, it is crucial to comprehend and effectively manage these dynamics. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impact of global oil prices on domestic price levels in Thailand, including key indexes such as the producer price index, consumer price index, and export price index, as well as prices of essential commodities like oil palm, sugarcane, cassava, diesel, and gasohol. The study employs both linear and nonlinear ARDL specifications, analyzing monthly time series data from January 2005 to June 2023 to unveil the nature of the relationship between global oil prices and product price levels. The empirical results indicate that most product prices respond to changes in global oil prices in an asymmetrical manner. However, oil palm prices exhibit a symmetrical response, and sugarcane prices do not display a clear pattern during testing. Based on these findings, the study offers recommendations for short-term and long-term policies aimed at mitigating the impact of domestic oil price fluctuations, ensuring energy stability, and promoting sustainability in the future.

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来源期刊
Energy nexus
Energy nexus Energy (General), Ecological Modelling, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Water Science and Technology, Agricultural and Biological Sciences (General)
CiteScore
7.70
自引率
0.00%
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0
审稿时长
109 days
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