{"title":"评估全球石油价格对泰国国内价格水平的影响:非线性 ARDL 调查","authors":"Chalermpon Jatuporn","doi":"10.1016/j.nexus.2024.100307","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Oil prices play a pivotal role in Thailand's economic development due to its heavy reliance on oil imports to meet its energy needs. Fluctuations in global oil prices directly and significantly impact domestic price levels, affecting production costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. To ensure stability and foster economic development, it is crucial to comprehend and effectively manage these dynamics. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impact of global oil prices on domestic price levels in Thailand, including key indexes such as the producer price index, consumer price index, and export price index, as well as prices of essential commodities like oil palm, sugarcane, cassava, diesel, and gasohol. The study employs both linear and nonlinear ARDL specifications, analyzing monthly time series data from January 2005 to June 2023 to unveil the nature of the relationship between global oil prices and product price levels. The empirical results indicate that most product prices respond to changes in global oil prices in an asymmetrical manner. However, oil palm prices exhibit a symmetrical response, and sugarcane prices do not display a clear pattern during testing. Based on these findings, the study offers recommendations for short-term and long-term policies aimed at mitigating the impact of domestic oil price fluctuations, ensuring energy stability, and promoting sustainability in the future.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":93548,"journal":{"name":"Energy nexus","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277242712400038X/pdfft?md5=407f6a699b41b86ac595b8568d2ce4dc&pid=1-s2.0-S277242712400038X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessing the impact of global oil prices on domestic price levels in Thailand: A nonlinear ARDL investigation\",\"authors\":\"Chalermpon Jatuporn\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.nexus.2024.100307\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Oil prices play a pivotal role in Thailand's economic development due to its heavy reliance on oil imports to meet its energy needs. Fluctuations in global oil prices directly and significantly impact domestic price levels, affecting production costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. To ensure stability and foster economic development, it is crucial to comprehend and effectively manage these dynamics. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impact of global oil prices on domestic price levels in Thailand, including key indexes such as the producer price index, consumer price index, and export price index, as well as prices of essential commodities like oil palm, sugarcane, cassava, diesel, and gasohol. The study employs both linear and nonlinear ARDL specifications, analyzing monthly time series data from January 2005 to June 2023 to unveil the nature of the relationship between global oil prices and product price levels. The empirical results indicate that most product prices respond to changes in global oil prices in an asymmetrical manner. However, oil palm prices exhibit a symmetrical response, and sugarcane prices do not display a clear pattern during testing. Based on these findings, the study offers recommendations for short-term and long-term policies aimed at mitigating the impact of domestic oil price fluctuations, ensuring energy stability, and promoting sustainability in the future.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":93548,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Energy nexus\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277242712400038X/pdfft?md5=407f6a699b41b86ac595b8568d2ce4dc&pid=1-s2.0-S277242712400038X-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Energy nexus\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277242712400038X\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Energy nexus","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277242712400038X","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Assessing the impact of global oil prices on domestic price levels in Thailand: A nonlinear ARDL investigation
Oil prices play a pivotal role in Thailand's economic development due to its heavy reliance on oil imports to meet its energy needs. Fluctuations in global oil prices directly and significantly impact domestic price levels, affecting production costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. To ensure stability and foster economic development, it is crucial to comprehend and effectively manage these dynamics. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impact of global oil prices on domestic price levels in Thailand, including key indexes such as the producer price index, consumer price index, and export price index, as well as prices of essential commodities like oil palm, sugarcane, cassava, diesel, and gasohol. The study employs both linear and nonlinear ARDL specifications, analyzing monthly time series data from January 2005 to June 2023 to unveil the nature of the relationship between global oil prices and product price levels. The empirical results indicate that most product prices respond to changes in global oil prices in an asymmetrical manner. However, oil palm prices exhibit a symmetrical response, and sugarcane prices do not display a clear pattern during testing. Based on these findings, the study offers recommendations for short-term and long-term policies aimed at mitigating the impact of domestic oil price fluctuations, ensuring energy stability, and promoting sustainability in the future.
Energy nexusEnergy (General), Ecological Modelling, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Water Science and Technology, Agricultural and Biological Sciences (General)