{"title":"1980-2021 年伊拉克年降雨量创新趋势分析","authors":"A. Al-Lami, Y. Al-Timimi, Ali Al-Salihi","doi":"10.54386/jam.v26i2.2561","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Rainfall trend analysis is essential for managing water resources, agriculture, disaster management, and climate change research. The current study aims to examine annual rainfall variability and trend over 38 meteorological stations in Iraq during the period (1980-2021) using three tests: linear regression analysis (LRA), Mann-Kendall (MK), and the innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results of the three different tests showed that most stations recorded a decreasing trend except for four stations in ITA, six stations in MK, and seven stations in the LRA test, which exhibit a positive trend. However, three stations, Emaidyah, Rabiah, and Biji, showed an increasing trend for all three tests. The ITA test recorded more significant results (14 stations) than the other two tests. The larger significant result appeared in the significance level of 95 % (nine in LRA, eight in MK, and five in ITA). The outcomes of the three trend-detection approaches by assessing the statistical significance levels, 90 %, 95 %, and 99 %, revealed no significant trend in 16 stations dispersed throughout the various climatic zones of Iraq. Only Emadiayah station indicated a positive trend at the significance of 99 %. The overall results showed that the ITA test outperformed the MK and LRA tests since it produced more significant results.","PeriodicalId":56127,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agrometeorology","volume":"54 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Innovative trend analysis of annual rainfall in Iraq during 1980-2021\",\"authors\":\"A. Al-Lami, Y. Al-Timimi, Ali Al-Salihi\",\"doi\":\"10.54386/jam.v26i2.2561\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Rainfall trend analysis is essential for managing water resources, agriculture, disaster management, and climate change research. The current study aims to examine annual rainfall variability and trend over 38 meteorological stations in Iraq during the period (1980-2021) using three tests: linear regression analysis (LRA), Mann-Kendall (MK), and the innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results of the three different tests showed that most stations recorded a decreasing trend except for four stations in ITA, six stations in MK, and seven stations in the LRA test, which exhibit a positive trend. However, three stations, Emaidyah, Rabiah, and Biji, showed an increasing trend for all three tests. The ITA test recorded more significant results (14 stations) than the other two tests. The larger significant result appeared in the significance level of 95 % (nine in LRA, eight in MK, and five in ITA). The outcomes of the three trend-detection approaches by assessing the statistical significance levels, 90 %, 95 %, and 99 %, revealed no significant trend in 16 stations dispersed throughout the various climatic zones of Iraq. Only Emadiayah station indicated a positive trend at the significance of 99 %. The overall results showed that the ITA test outperformed the MK and LRA tests since it produced more significant results.\",\"PeriodicalId\":56127,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Agrometeorology\",\"volume\":\"54 18\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Agrometeorology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v26i2.2561\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"Agricultural and Biological Sciences\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Agrometeorology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v26i2.2561","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
Innovative trend analysis of annual rainfall in Iraq during 1980-2021
Rainfall trend analysis is essential for managing water resources, agriculture, disaster management, and climate change research. The current study aims to examine annual rainfall variability and trend over 38 meteorological stations in Iraq during the period (1980-2021) using three tests: linear regression analysis (LRA), Mann-Kendall (MK), and the innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results of the three different tests showed that most stations recorded a decreasing trend except for four stations in ITA, six stations in MK, and seven stations in the LRA test, which exhibit a positive trend. However, three stations, Emaidyah, Rabiah, and Biji, showed an increasing trend for all three tests. The ITA test recorded more significant results (14 stations) than the other two tests. The larger significant result appeared in the significance level of 95 % (nine in LRA, eight in MK, and five in ITA). The outcomes of the three trend-detection approaches by assessing the statistical significance levels, 90 %, 95 %, and 99 %, revealed no significant trend in 16 stations dispersed throughout the various climatic zones of Iraq. Only Emadiayah station indicated a positive trend at the significance of 99 %. The overall results showed that the ITA test outperformed the MK and LRA tests since it produced more significant results.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Agrometeorology (ISSN 0972-1665) , is a quarterly publication of Association of Agrometeorologists appearing in March, June, September and December. Since its beginning in 1999 till 2016, it was a half yearly publication appearing in June and December. In addition to regular issues, Association also brings out the special issues of the journal covering selected papers presented in seminar symposia organized by the Association.