1980-2021 年伊拉克年降雨量创新趋势分析

Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences
A. Al-Lami, Y. Al-Timimi, Ali Al-Salihi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

降雨趋势分析对于水资源管理、农业、灾害管理和气候变化研究至关重要。本研究旨在利用线性回归分析(LRA)、曼-肯德尔(MK)和创新趋势分析(ITA)三种测试方法,研究伊拉克 38 个气象站在 1980-2021 年期间的年降雨量变化和趋势。三种不同测试的结果表明,除 4 个测站(ITA)、6 个测站(MK)和 7 个测站(LRA)呈正趋势外,大多数测站都呈下降趋势。不过,Emaidyah、Rabiah 和 Biji 这三个站点在所有三项测试中均呈上升趋势。与其他两个测试相比,ITA 测试记录了更多的显著结果(14 个站点)。在显著性水平为 95 % 时,显著性结果较多(LRA 为 9 个,MK 为 8 个,ITA 为 5 个)。通过评估统计显著性水平 90%、95% 和 99%,三种趋势检测方法的结果显示,分布在伊拉克各气候区的 16 个站点均无显著趋势。只有 Emadiayah 站在 99 % 的显著性水平上显示出积极趋势。总体结果表明,ITA 检验结果优于 MK 和 LRA 检验结果,因为它产生的结果更显著。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Innovative trend analysis of annual rainfall in Iraq during 1980-2021
Rainfall trend analysis is essential for managing water resources, agriculture, disaster management, and climate change research. The current study aims to examine annual rainfall variability and trend over 38 meteorological stations in Iraq during the period (1980-2021) using three tests: linear regression analysis (LRA), Mann-Kendall (MK), and the innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results of the three different tests showed that most stations recorded a decreasing trend except for four stations in ITA, six stations in MK, and seven stations in the LRA test, which exhibit a positive trend. However, three stations, Emaidyah, Rabiah, and Biji, showed an increasing trend for all three tests. The ITA test recorded more significant results (14 stations) than the other two tests. The larger significant result appeared in the significance level of 95 % (nine in LRA, eight in MK, and five in ITA). The outcomes of the three trend-detection approaches by assessing the statistical significance levels, 90 %, 95 %, and 99 %, revealed no significant trend in 16 stations dispersed throughout the various climatic zones of Iraq. Only Emadiayah station indicated a positive trend at the significance of 99 %. The overall results showed that the ITA test outperformed the MK and LRA tests since it produced more significant results.
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来源期刊
Journal of Agrometeorology
Journal of Agrometeorology 农林科学-农艺学
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
95
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Agrometeorology (ISSN 0972-1665) , is a quarterly publication of Association of Agrometeorologists appearing in March, June, September and December. Since its beginning in 1999 till 2016, it was a half yearly publication appearing in June and December. In addition to regular issues, Association also brings out the special issues of the journal covering selected papers presented in seminar symposia organized by the Association.
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