气候变化与冬小麦产量：冰冻日和长期适应的作用

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI:10.1093/erae/jbae015

Yabin Da, Yangyang Xu, Fujin Yi, Bruce McCarl

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文采用了最近提出的气候惩罚模型来估算特定季节气候变化对中国冬小麦产量的影响，并通过比较该模型得出的短期和长期估算值来揭示长期适应的影响。我们发现，春季冰冻天数至关重要，因为当考虑到冰冻天数减少（由全球变暖引起）时，我们估计产量会有小幅增加，而当忽略这种影响时，产量会有大幅损失。我们还发现了适应效应的巨大影响，它可以扭转气候变化影响的符号。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Climate change and winter wheat yields: the roles of freezing days and long-run adaptations

This paper employs the recently proposed climate penalty model to estimate season-specific climate change impacts on Chinese winter wheat yields and also reveals the effects of long-run adaptions by comparing the short-run and long-run estimates identified from the model. We find that Spring freezing days are critical as we estimate small yield gains when considering a reduction in the number of freezing days (induced by global warming), as opposed to large yield losses when such effects are omitted. We also find substantial influences of adaptation effects that could reverse the sign of climate change impacts.

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来源期刊

European Review of Agricultural Economics 管理科学-农业经济与政策

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

5.90%

发文量

审稿时长

>24 weeks

期刊介绍： The European Review of Agricultural Economics serves as a forum for innovative theoretical and applied agricultural economics research. The ERAE strives for balanced coverage of economic issues within the broad subject matter of agricultural and food production, consumption and trade, rural development, and resource use and conservation. Topics of specific interest include multiple roles of agriculture; trade and development; industrial organisation of the food sector; institutional dynamics; consumer behaviour; sustainable resource use; bioenergy; agricultural, agri-environmental and rural policy; specific European issues. Methodological articles are welcome. All published papers are at least double peer reviewed and must show originality and innovation. The ERAE also publishes book reviews.