热带印度洋海面温度和潜热通量变化的对数曲线建模

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Prerna Malik , Bhasha H. Vachharajani , Dency V. Panicker
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于其独特的海洋-大气相互作用,热带印度洋(TIO)是最易受气候变化影响的地区之一。该地区的特点是温度高、蒸发率高、对流强,因此特别容易受到温室气体的影响。这种易受影响性导致地球表面和大气层的整体变暖趋势,使海面温度(SST)升高,蒸发率增加,从而影响地表潜热通量(SLHF)。海表温度和表面潜热通量对大气环流和降水模式的强烈影响使它们成为决定地区气候的关键因素,尤其是在季风主导的地区。分析表明,TIO 中心区域的 SST 和 SLHF 均呈持续上升趋势。为了模拟这一趋势,对这些参数采用了标准的逻辑曲线模型 (LCM),并对太印度洋群岛中部地区进行了平均。该模式从 2001 年至 2020 年运行 20 年,分为四个周期。LCM 得出的 SST 和 SLHF 与上述期间的观测数据集十分吻合,SST 的相关系数为 0.92 至 0.96,SLHF 的相关系数为 0.86 至 0.90。将该模式的空间范围扩展到整个 TIO 区域,可以解释为什么该模式能够预测不同季节的 SST 和 SLHF 值的波动。这些发现突显了该模式在捕捉参数的短期、长期和季节变化方面的相关性,为了解区域气候动态提供了重要依据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Logistic curve modelling of sea surface temperature and latent heat flux variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean

The Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change due to its unique ocean-atmosphere interactions. The region is characterized by warm temperatures, high evaporation rates, and strong convection, making it particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gases. This susceptibility leads to an overall trend of warming across the Earth's surface and atmosphere, intensifying sea surface temperatures (SST) and increasing evaporation rates, consequently influencing Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF). The strong influence of both SST and SLHF on atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns makes them critical factors in determining the region's climate, particularly in monsoon-dominated regions. Analysis reveals a consistent upward trend in both SST and SLHF in the central region of TIO. To model this, standard Logistic Curve Model (LCM) has been applied to these parameters averaged over the central region of the TIO. The model is run for a period of 20 years from 2001 to 2020, grouped into four lustrums. The LCM-derived SST and SLHF are in good consistent with observed datasets during the above periods with, correlation coefficients ranging from 0.92 to 0.96 for SST and 0.86–0.90 for SLHF. Extending the model spatially across the entire TIO region explains the ability to project fluctuations in SST and SLHF values across different seasons. These findings highlight the model's relevance for capturing short-term, long-term, and seasonal variability of the parameters, providing important insights into regional climate dynamics.

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来源期刊
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
5.90%
发文量
43
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans is an international journal for research related to the dynamical and physical processes governing atmospheres, oceans and climate. Authors are invited to submit articles, short contributions or scholarly reviews in the following areas: •Dynamic meteorology •Physical oceanography •Geophysical fluid dynamics •Climate variability and climate change •Atmosphere-ocean-biosphere-cryosphere interactions •Prediction and predictability •Scale interactions Papers of theoretical, computational, experimental and observational investigations are invited, particularly those that explore the fundamental nature - or bring together the interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary aspects - of dynamical and physical processes at all scales. Papers that explore air-sea interactions and the coupling between atmospheres, oceans, and other components of the climate system are particularly welcome.
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