The Impact of the Digital Economy on Provincial Carbon Emissions in China

With the arrival of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, digital changes have occurred in various areas, such as production, circulation, and exchange, triggering efficiency and quality changes in the entire economic system and bringing new opportunities for China’s energy conservation and carbon reduction policies. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020, this paper uses ArcGIS software and the Moran index method to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and agglomeration effects of the digital economy and carbon emissions and uses the spatial Durbin model to analyze the impact mechanism of the digital economy on carbon emissions. The results show that the development of the digital economy can significantly suppress provincial carbon emissions, and the carbon reduction effect of the digital economy has a significant positive spatial spillover effect. The digital economy can reduce carbon emissions by promoting technological innovation and optimizing the industrial structure. However, the carbon emission reduction effect of energy structure optimization is uncertain due to energy rebound effects. The digital economy has a suppressive effect on carbon emissions in both the eastern and western regions, while the development of the digital economy in the central region increases carbon emissions due to factors such as the “resource curse”, income effects and energy rebound effects. Digital economy development plays an inhibitory role in the carbon emissions of regions, with the greater the digital economy level, the more significant the inhibitory effect. Based on the above results, corresponding suggestions are proposed to strengthen the development of the digital economy and promote carbon reduction.