多功能活动场所疏散的蒙特卡洛分析

Fire Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI:10.3390/fire7060178
Adéla Snohová, Petr Kučera, Jiri Pokorny, A. Bernatik
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文针对多功能厅的人员疏散问题,介绍了一种创新方法,即使用概率模型,特别是蒙特卡洛方法,来分析迭代疏散过程。本文旨在探讨这一现代技术如何有助于制定有效、安全的群体活动疏散计划。蒙特卡洛方法被应用于一个特定的例子,即一个多功能厅,它为体育比赛、音乐会或演出等活动提供不同的配置。对两种配置的人员疏散情况进行了分析:一场可容纳 9500 人的曲棍球比赛和一场可容纳 11000 人的音乐会。在这两种情况下,都分析了人员从大厅疏散的总量,并评估了改变两个参数时的疏散时间:移动速度和选择门的偏好。模拟结果可为多功能厅和其他类似多功能场所设计有效的安全措施提供宝贵信息。这种创新的疏散分析方法可以对疏散过程进行全面评估,确定关键区域,并验证空间布局。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Monte Carlo Analysis for Evacuation in Multipurpose Event Spaces
This paper addresses the evacuation of people from multipurpose halls and introduces an innovative approach that uses a probabilistic model, specifically the Monte Carlo method, to analyse iterative evacuation processes. The aim is to explore how this modern technology can contribute to the development of effective and safe evacuation plans for mass events. The Monte Carlo method was applied to a specific example of a multipurpose hall that offers different configurations for events such as sports matches, concerts, or performances. The evacuation of people was analysed for two configurations: a hockey match with a capacity of 9500 people and a concert with a capacity of 11,000 people. In both cases, the total evacuation of people from the hall was analysed, and the evacuation time was evaluated when two parameters were changed: speed of movement and preference for door selection. The results of the simulations can provide valuable information for the design of effective safety measures in multipurpose halls and other similar multipurpose venues. This innovative approach to evacuation analysis allows for a comprehensive assessment of the evacuation process, identification of critical areas, and verification of the layout of the space.
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