Export Intensity and Total Factor Productivity in Kenya’s Manufacturing Sector

Kenya has adopted an export-led manufacturing industrialization strategy as envisaged by many policy documents including the Kenya Vision 2030 which aimed at increasing the manufacturing share in Gross Domestic Product to 15 per cent by 2022. The share of manufactured exports in all exports was targeted at 60 per cent by 2022 as per the National Exports Development and Promotion Strategy. However, manufacturing sector’s productivity has been declining as demonstrated by its economic contribution which has averaged around 10 per cent from 2007 to 2022 and has persistently declined from 12.79 per cent in 2007 to 7.83 per cent in 2022 pointing towards premature deindustrialization. Besides, from 2007 to 2022, the share of total exports made up of manufactured goods averaged 33 per cent. The study aimed to estimate firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) and examine the impact of export activity on firms’ TFP in Kenya’s manufacturing industry. Firm TFP was computed utilizing the Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) technique. The study employed Propensity Score Matching and a dynamic panel model estimated using the generalized methods of moments technique, to analyze the effect of exporting on firms TFP. Export intensity, labor productivity and management experience had positive effects on firm’s TFP. However, firm size and capital intensity had negative effects on TFP. Based on the study findings, the government should emphasize on export promotion policies as well as adoption of labor intensive technologies in Kenya’s manufacturing sector.