评估公众对交通政策的情绪:河内摩托车禁令的因果分析

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION
Minh Kieu , Rika Ozaki , Patricia Ternes , Nick Malleson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

有争议的交通政策,如越南河内市拟议的非电动摩托车禁令,往往会挑战现状并引发道路使用者的抵制。本文旨在解读摩托车禁令的因果影响,重点是阐明河内城市交通模式和公众情绪的潜在转变。研究方法以混合方法为基础。研究首先将空间倾向得分匹配法(SPSM)应用于定制的交通调查,以减少在确定禁令对社会态度和行为的因果影响时的地域混淆。随后,该研究应用正序逻辑回归法量化了各种社会经济和人口因素对公众对摩托车禁令的看法的因果影响。通过这一框架,本研究深入分析了影响个人对河内摩托车禁令等有争议的交通政策看法的关键因素。具体而言,该方法揭示了河内市民在社会经济地位、公共交通认知、摩托车依赖性和汽车亲和力方面的 4 个关键地理洞察力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Evaluating public sentiment towards transport policies: A causal analysis of the motorbike ban in Hanoi

Controversial transport policies, such as the proposed ban on non-electric motorbikes in Hanoi, Vietnam, often challenge the status quo and spur resistance among road users. This paper aims to unpack the causal implications of the motorbike ban, with an emphasis on elucidating potential transformations in urban mobility patterns and public sentiment in Hanoi. The research methodology is rooted in an mixed-methods approach. It begins by applying Spatial Propensity Score Matching (SPSM) to a bespoke transport survey to mitigate geographical confounding in the identification of the ban’s causal effects on societal attitudes and behaviours. Subsequently, it applies Ordinal Logistic Regression to quantify the causal influences of diverse socio-economic and demographic factors on public opinion towards the motorbike ban. Together, these methods yield a robust analysis of the policy’s prospective impacts.

Through this framework, the study provides insights into the key factors influencing individual’s opinion on controversial transport policies, such as the motorbike ban in Hanoi. Specifically, the approach reveals 4 key geographical insights into socioeconomic status, public transport perception, motorbike dependency, and automobile affinity among people in Hanoi.

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CiteScore
5.00
自引率
12.00%
发文量
222
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