Determining the range of negotiable prices for public–private partnership infrastructure projects: a simulation approach

PurposeThis research aims to measure the public sector comparator (PSC) to reach public–private partnership (PPP) projects' negotiable price range for water and sewage companies in Iran. PSC measurement drives the public sector to make valid decisions about costs.Design/methodology/approachAround 170 risks were primarily determined through studying numerous articles. Then, risk effects were specified by distributing questionnaires in two steps. The questionnaires are distributed among experts on PPP-related projects and the Monte Carlo simulation method is used for confidence factors of 70, 80 and 90%. PSC is measured based on these results to study cases of Sirjan’s sewerage and sewage purification systems.Findings11 risks were identified as the main risks that are effective on PSC, and project implementation costs were specified based on the modeling. The corruption of the private and public sectors was identified as the most effective risk in this research. It can affect a project’s cost up to 158% in the construction period and up to 134% in the operation period. Based on the obtained results, 63% of this risk’s cost goes to the public sector.Originality/valueThe originality of this research is the PSC measurement method and appointing the risk share of each private and public sector. The results of this research can be applied to all the infrastructure and PPP projects in Iran and other developing countries as a way for employers to estimate accurate negotiable price ranges.