商业超音速航空旅行:飞行路线和需求预测

Q2 Social Sciences
Mohammed Hassan, Holger Pfaender, Thayná Oliveira, Nadir Ougazzaden, Thomas Dussauge, Dimitri N. Mavris
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,人们对商业超音速航空旅行重新产生了兴趣,目前正在宣传新的概念,以期在未来十年内卷土重来。由于超音速飞行器在飞行过程中会产生音爆,目前的法规不允许超音速飞行器在陆地上运行。为了占据有利的市场份额,这些飞行器必须在遵守现行法规的前提下,提供比以前更多的航线服务。本研究针对商业超音速航空旅行的陆上禁飞航线和特定航线需求预测提出了一种新颖而全面的方法,以评估在名义航空交通增长条件下的预期市场占有率。基线参考方案的结果表明,如果采用高效的飞行路线,这些飞行器可以在许多航线上运行,并能捕获当前亚音速航空旅行需求的 5%至 8%。然而,对前 10 条航线进行的敏感性分析表明,飞行路线和需求预测对基本假设的敏感性很强,根据与飞机和航空公司特性相关的建模输入,结果可能会有很大差异。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Commercial Supersonic Air Travel: Flight Routing and Demand Forecasting
There has been renewed interest in commercial supersonic air travel in recent years with new concepts currently being advertised for a potential comeback within the next decade. Current regulations do not permit overland operations for supersonic vehicles due to the sonic booms produced during flight. To capture a favorable market share, these vehicles would have to serve more routes than previously served while abiding with current regulations. This study presents a novel and comprehensive approach to overland-prohibited flight routing and route-specific demand forecasting for commercial supersonic air travel, in order to assess the expected market capture under nominal air traffic growth conditions. Results for a baseline reference scenario suggest that with efficient flight routing these vehicles could operate on many routes and capture 5 to 8% of the current demand for subsonic air travel. However, a sensitivity analysis of the top 10 routes showed that both flight routing and demand forecasting are notably sensible to the underlying assumptions and that results could vary considerably based on modeling inputs pertaining to both the aircraft and airline characteristics.
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来源期刊
Journal of Air Transportation
Journal of Air Transportation Social Sciences-Safety Research
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
16
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