Chad M. Fiechter, Megan N. Hughes, Sarah A. Atkinson, James Mintert, Michael R. Langemeier
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Farmer sentiment and farm service agency direct loan applications
Purpose
Farmer sentiment may be an important indicator for the agricultural sector, similar to the way that consumer sentiment is linked to the general economy. This study uses the Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to test the degree to which farmer sentiment is correlated with demand for United States Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency (FSA) direct loan applications.
Design/methodology/approach
We estimate the dynamics between farmer sentiment and applications to FSA direct operating or farm ownership loans using monthly measures of farmer sentiment and loan applications from October 2015 to April 2023 and pairwise vector autoregression.
Findings
A negative relationship exists between farmer sentiment and FSA direct operating loan applications. In contrast, a positive relationship exists between farmer sentiment and FSA direct farm ownership loan applications. Together, the estimated nonzero relationships suggests that the Ag Economy Barometer may be a leading indicator for the Agricultural Economy and that FSA loan programs play a nuanced role in the agricultural credit market.
Originality/value
This study uses unique data sources to further the discussion on the link between farmer sentiment and real economic outcomes and the role of an important US Federal Government farmer lending program: FSA direct loans.
期刊介绍：
Agricultural Finance Review provides a rigorous forum for the publication of theory and empirical work related solely to issues in agricultural and agribusiness finance. Contributions come from academic and industry experts across the world and address a wide range of topics including: Agricultural finance, Agricultural policy related to agricultural finance and risk issues, Agricultural lending and credit issues, Farm credit, Businesses and financial risks affecting agriculture and agribusiness, Agricultural policies affecting farm or agribusiness risks and profitability, Risk management strategies including the use of futures and options, Rural credit in developing economies, Microfinance and microcredit applied to agriculture and rural development, Financial efficiency, Agriculture insurance and reinsurance. Agricultural Finance Review is committed to research addressing (1) factors affecting or influencing the financing of agriculture and agribusiness in both developed and developing nations; (2) the broadest aspect of risk assessment and risk management strategies affecting agriculture; and (3) government policies affecting farm profitability, liquidity, and access to credit.
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