Squamous metaplasia is an indicator of acute exacerbation in patients with usual interstitial pneumonia / idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Background

Acute exacerbation (AE) is a potentially lethal event in patients with usual interstitial pneumonia/idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (UIP/IPF). However, to date, no pathological predictors of AE have been identified. This retrospective study aimed to elucidate the pathological features that could predict AE in patients with UIP.

Methods

We reviewed the pathological findings of 91 patients with UIP/IPF and correlated these findings with AE events. Thirteen histological variables related to acute lung injury were evaluated by three independent observers and classified as positive or negative. The patients’ clinical data during follow-up were collected and reviewed for AE. A recursive partition using the Gini index for the prediction of AE was performed, with each pathological finding as a candidate for branching.

Results

Twenty patients (22%) developed AE during the median follow-up duration of 40 months. Thirty-eight patients died (15 due to AE and 23 for other reasons). The median time interval from surgical lung biopsy to AE onset was 497 (interquartile range: 901–1657) days. Histologically, squamous metaplasia was positively associated with AE (odds ratio: 4.7, P = 0.015) and worse event-free survival in patients with UIP (P = 0.04). Leaf scoring based on the Gini index for recursive partition, including five positive findings (squamous metaplasia, neutrophilic infiltration, septal widening, Kuhn's hyaline, and fibrin), showed a sensitivity of 90% with a specificity of 74.7% (area under curve: 0.89).

Conclusions

We found that squamous metaplasia is an important histopathological finding that predicts AE events and tends to unfavorable outcome in patients with UIP/IPF.