Overcoming the lack of distribution data for range-restricted habitat specialist frogs

With over 40% of species threatened with extinction, the distributional range of most amphibians is still unknown, generating uncertainty whether species are naturally rare, under-sampled, or difficult to detect. We implemented a modelling approach that uses bromeliads as surrogates to predict the distribution of habitat specialist frogs that lack distributional data. We aimed to predict and survey potential new sites for the occurrence of a rare and microendemic bromeliad-dwelling frog from the Atlantic Rainforest of Brazil. We used Maxent to predict suitable areas based on climate and topographic profiles, combined with 21 occurrence records of bromeliads within which our target frog species (Crossodactylodes itambe) is strictly restricted. The bromeliad-based models identified four areas potentially suitable, and subsequent surveys revealed an entirely new species of a rare bromeliad-dwelling frog in one of the areas. We demonstrate that using easy-to-survey surrogate species that have a strong relationship with species that are hard to detect has enormous potential to reveal crucial information on the potential ranges and distribution of cryptic taxa. Such a surrogate modelling approach could be extended to other habitat specialist species that lack distribution data, such as amphibians restricted to specific refugia and/or reproduction sites. This could improve the targeting of surveys and increase understanding of the patterns of rarity and the drivers of species distribution, especially for areas with high endemicity and range-restricted frogs.