Defining "High Recurrence" of Depressive Episodes for Predicting Diagnostic Conversion from Major Depressive Disorder to Bipolar Disorder: A 5-year Retrospective Study.

Objective: This study determined the threshold for recurrent depressive episodes that predicted conversion from major depressive disorder (MDD) to bipolar disorder (BD).

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 296 patients diagnosed with MDD for a minimum of 5 years in two university hospitals. We examined their the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition diagnoses and detailed clinical information at the initial admission and yearly assessments after discharge to establish the threshold for recurrent depressive episodes indicating a risk of diagnostic conversion from MDD to BD. Optimal cut-offs were derived using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Results: ROC curve analysis revealed that more than four recurrent depressive episodes was indicative of potential diagnostic conversion from MDD to BD (area under the curve, 0.604; sensitivity, 0.353; specificity, 0.855; positive predictive value, 0.421; negative predictive value, 0.816).

Conclusion: These findings suggest that the best predictor of conversion from MDD to BD is more than four recurrent depressive episodes. Our findings have the potential to enhance diagnostic accuracy and treatment efficiency. To validate our results, longitudinal prospective studies are necessary.