多元宇宙微调论证中的索引性、贝叶斯背景和自我定位

Noûs Pub Date : 2024-04-29 DOI:10.1111/nous.12502
Quentin Ruyant
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们的宇宙似乎奇迹般地对生命进行了微调。有人根据概率论提出了多重宇宙理论来解释这一点,但有多位学者反对说,我们在推论时应该考虑到我们的全部证据,特别是这个宇宙拥有生命的证据,这样就会阻碍论证。因此,争论的关键在于如何区分贝叶斯背景和证据,以及如何分析索引性或示范性术语。本文旨在退后一步,研究贝叶斯推理的这些不同方面及其对论证的影响。结果是,我们有理由抵制多元宇宙的微调论证,但 "这个宇宙的反对 "并不是其中之一。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Indexicality, Bayesian background and self‐location in fine‐tuning arguments for the multiverse
Our universe seems to be miraculously fine‐tuned for life. Multiverse theories have been proposed as an explanation for this on the basis of probabilistic arguments, but various authors have objected that we should consider our total evidence that this universe in particular has life in our inference, which would block the argument. The debate thus crucially hinges on how Bayesian background and evidence are distinguished and on how indexical or demonstrative terms are analysed. The aim of this article is to take a step back and examine these various aspects of Bayesian reasoning and how they affect the arguments. The upshot is that there are reasons to resist the fine‐tuning argument for the multiverse, but the “this‐universe‐objection” is not one of them.
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