Semantic analysis of two-syllabic terms of metrology. Part 2: Risk in measurements and calculations

Prior to the requirement for testing and calibration laboratories to take into account the risk of statistical assumptions, false positive and false negative decisions in international documents, it was found that the methodology of the “Guide to Expressing Measurement Uncertainty” based on the Bayes approach and the Monte Carlo method for calculating probabilistic risk characteristics is not applicable. A later draft revision of the “Manual on the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty” attempted to shift the interpretation of measurement uncertainty from the scattering parameter to the probability distribution. An attempt to contribute to solving the problem of definitional uncertainty in the International Dictionary of Basic and Basic Terms of Metrology was also unsuccessful. In the new version of the dictionary of general statistical terms and probability theory terms, the term measurement uncertainty is excluded, and one of the notes states that “the probability distribution fully describes the probabilistic properties of the uncertainty of the result”. However, due to the new requirements for risk calculations, international documents were urgently put into effect without radical assessments of the inapplicability of the Bayes approach and the Monte Carlo method, the disadvantages were renamed limitations, but there are no specific instructions for calculating risks. Based on the experience of the compositional approach to estimating accuracy, a procedure based on the convolution of probability distributions in the form of a modified reversal formula is recommended, which allows taking into account the definitive uncertainty in the moment approach. It is established that the method of accounting for the definitive uncertainty by convolution of uniform distributions is practically suggested in the text of the “Manual on the expression of measurement uncertainty”, but not used.