我国人口出生率变化趋势及影响因素分析

Ran Yu, Dan Li, Hongyun Gao, Shuang Chen
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摘要

本文在时间序列分析的基础上,初步挖掘了人口出生率的变化趋势,并对未来人口出生率的变化进行了一些短期预测,希望能对其解决方法有所启发。本文试图通过回归分析来挖掘几个主导因素对出生率的影响。为了解决因变量与各自变量之间相关性不显著的问题,本文利用聚类分析筛选出具有代表性的省份作为后续研究的样本。我们利用 SPSS 作为分析工具,构建了物价水平与教育水平共同影响出生率的回归模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Change trend of birth rate of our country population and influence factor analysis
On the ground of time series analyses, this paper excavates the trend in preliminary and carries out some short-term forecasts about future birthrate variation in wish to shed light on its solutions. This paper attempts to excavate the influence that several dominant factors exert on birthrates via regression analyses. The cluster analyses are utilized to filter out representative provinces as samples for subsequent research in order to tackle the problem that the correlations between dependant variable and each independent variable is not significant. Wielding SPSS as an analytical tool, we construct the regression model about how price level in combination with education level influences the birthrates.
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