Spatial modeling of micro-scale carbon dioxide sources and sinks in urban environments: A novel approach to quantify urban impacts on global warming

Urban environments play a significant role in global carbon emissions and sequestration, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of their spatial distribution. This study presents a micro-scale spatial modeling framework to elucidate the complex interplay between CO₂ sources and sinks within urban settings. Utilizing advanced geospatial analysis, remote sensing data, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) modeling techniques, we provide a detailed characterization of emission patterns and identify the spatial distribution of carbon dioxide sequestration. Employing the bottom-up method and geographic information system techniques, we quantified carbon dioxide emissions in Isfahan City, Iran, attributing 81.68% to stationary combustion sources (residential, commercial, industrial, and power plant sectors) and 18.32% to mobile combustion sources (road-rail transportation, and non-road transportation [agricultural machinery]). To model carbon sequestration, we calculated tree biomass using allometric equations and estimated carbon sequestration per tree unit. Subsequently, we employed GWR to map the spatial distribution of carbon deposition across the city. The results revealed an annual carbon sequestration capacity of 7,704 tons, equivalent to storing 28,275 tons of CO₂. Our findings highlight the substantial contribution of urban areas to greenhouse gas emissions and the potential of urban green spaces to mitigate these emissions. The spatial modeling framework developed in this study provides a valuable tool for urban planners to optimize carbon management strategies and promote sustainable urban development. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.