Dispersal potential does not predict recent range expansions of sub-Antarctic plant species

Dispersal influences many key aspects of plant ecology at both fine- and broad scales. However, dispersal events are challenging to quantify as they are difficult to observe and measure accurately, despite the importance of understanding species’ dispersal capacity. In this study, we quantified dispersal estimates for the dominant vascular flora of sub-Antarctic Marion Island, using a mechanistic model to estimate dispersal potential via anemochory and standardized experiments that simulate dispersal events via zoochory, human activity, and thalassochory, to test if dispersal capacity correlates to contemporary range expansion of the island’s native and alien species. Our results demonstrate the broad range of dispersal potential in the island’s flora and represent the first quantification of the dispersal potential (via multiple vectors) of the dominant vascular flora in the sub-Antarctic. Dispersal potential was not related to range expansion rates of native or alien species, suggesting that other mechanisms are responsible for the variation observed in species range expansion rates. Although this finding contradicts expectations and evidence from some other studies, it is consistent with research conducted in alpine regions (which may be climatically and physiognomically similar to this sub-Antarctic study site) where factors such as demography and competition are more important predictors of species range expansion than their dispersal ability, dispersal syndromes, or dispersal-related traits.