将地方回归法作为改进地方政策的工具:莫利塞岛(意大利南部)案例

IF 1.1 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY
Federico Benassi, Cecilia Tomassini, Carlo Lallo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

要实施以地方为基础的政策,就必须建立干预区域(在空间上连续的区域,并在这些区域内实施政策)。可以采用多种方法来界定这些区域。本文对使用地理加权回归模型(GWR)作为支持定义过程的工具进行了思考。案例研究涉及意大利南部的莫利塞地区,该地区尤其受到持续和根深蒂固的人口减少过程的影响。因变量是 2011-2019 年间莫利塞各市的年均人口变化率。自变量与各市的社会经济概况有关。结果显示,莫利塞省各市人口动态的一个关键变量是妇女的劳动力市场活动率,而这一变量导致的空间不稳定性是全球方法和模型无法检测到的。这证明,为了应用人口学和社会的利益,迫切需要扩大使用地方思维。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The Local Regression Approach as a Tool to Improve Place-Based Policies: The Case of Molise (Southern Italy)

The Local Regression Approach as a Tool to Improve Place-Based Policies: The Case of Molise (Southern Italy)

The implementation of place-based policies entails the construction of intervention areas (spatially contiguous areas in which the policies are adopted). Many approaches can be adopted for the definition of such areas. This paper reflects on the use of geographically weighted regression (GWR) models as a tool capable of supporting the definition process. The case study concerns Molise, a region in Southern Italy particularly affected by persistent and deep-rooted processes of depopulation. The dependent variable is the average annual rate of population change of municipalities of Molise across the 2011–2019. The independent variables are related to socio-economic profiles of each municipality. The results, contextualised using a broad overview of the Italian case, show that a key variable in the demographic dynamics of the municipalities of Molise is the labour market activity rate of women and that this variable drives a spatial instability that cannot be detected using global approaches and models. This proves the urgent need to expand the use of local thinking for the benefit of both applied demography and society.

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来源期刊
Spatial Demography
Spatial Demography DEMOGRAPHY-
自引率
0.00%
发文量
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期刊介绍: Spatial Demography focuses on understanding the spatial and spatiotemporal dimension of demographic processes.  More specifically, the journal is interested in submissions that include the innovative use and adoption of spatial concepts, geospatial data, spatial technologies, and spatial analytic methods that further our understanding of demographic and policy-related related questions. The journal publishes both substantive and methodological papers from across the discipline of demography and its related fields (including economics, geography, sociology, anthropology, environmental science) and in applications ranging from local to global scale. In addition to research articles the journal will consider for publication review essays, book reviews, and reports/reviews on data, software, and instructional resources.
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