采用农艺战略提高全球水稻生产对未来气候变化的适应性:一项元分析

IF 6.4 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY
Saiya Li, Feng Wu, Qing Zhou, Yali Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化对水稻产量的影响因水稻品种而异。设计有效的农艺适应战略对全球水稻供应至关重要。然而,在不同地区应采用何种方法/战略仍存在很大的不确定性。为此,我们进行了一项荟萃分析,旨在首先量化气候变化(即温度、降水和二氧化碳)和四种适应策略(即改变品种、调整施肥、调整灌溉和改变种植日期)对籼稻、粳稻和杂交稻产量的边际效应。我们进一步评估了气候对水稻产量的风险,并确定了三种共同社会经济路径(SSP)情景下的最佳适应策略。荟萃分析结果表明,温度对水稻产量的负面边际效应最大,为-3.11%,改变品种是抵消这一效应的最有效策略(15.93%),其次是增加灌溉(0.24%)。根据预测的气候情景,在 SSP5-8.5 条件下,2040 年代全球水稻平均产量将减少 2.11%。粳稻产量比籼稻和杂交稻悲观得多。为抵消这一影响,86.48% 的水稻种植区需要更换品种;施肥量和灌溉量分别增加 51.22% 和 8.54%;或提前 13 天播种。与全球平均水平相比,印度、中国和巴西等主要水稻生产国需要更紧迫、规模更大的适应战略。这些发现为更好地理解不同水稻品种和农艺策略的气候适应能力奠定了基础。我们的分析表明,如果采取适当措施,未来的水稻产量有可能满足水稻种植国的需求,同时支持生态友好型水稻生产。总之,本研究首先试图设计有效的农艺适应战略,以提高水稻生产对气候变化的适应能力,并加深对水稻品种适应性的理解,从而改进管理。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Adopting agronomic strategies to enhance the adaptation of global rice production to future climate change: a meta-analysis

Adopting agronomic strategies to enhance the adaptation of global rice production to future climate change: a meta-analysis

The impact of climate change on rice yield varies among different rice varieties. Designing effective agronomic adaptation strategies is crucial for global rice provision. However, considerable uncertainty remains as to which approaches/strategies should be used in different regions. To this end, we conducted a meta-analysis aimed at quantifying firstly the marginal effects of climate change (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and CO2) and four adaptation strategies (i.e., changing varieties, adjusting fertilization, adjusting irrigation, and altering planting dates) on rice yield in Indica, Japonica, and Hybrid rice. We further assessed climate risks to rice yield and identified optimum adaptation strategies under three shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The results of the meta-analysis showed that temperature has the greatest negative marginal effect of −3.11% on rice yield, with changing varieties being the most effective strategy (15.93%) to counter this effect, followed by increased irrigation (0.24%). Projected climate scenarios predict a 2.11% global average rice yield decrease in the 2040s under SSP5-8.5. Japonica rice yields are significantly more pessimistic than Indica and Hybrid rice. To offset this, 86.48% of the rice planting area would need to change varieties; increase fertilization and irrigation by 51.22% and 8.54%, respectively; or plant in advance by 13 days. Major rice-producing countries such as India, China, and Brazil will need adaptation strategies with higher urgency and scale than the global average. These findings form a basis for a better understanding of climate resilience in different rice varieties and agronomic strategies. Our analysis suggests that it is possible for future rice yield to meet the needs of rice-growing countries while supporting eco-friendly rice production if the appropriate measures are taken. Overall, this study attempts firstly to design effective agronomic adaptation strategies to enhance rice production resilience against climate change and advance understanding of rice varietal adaptation for improved management.

Graphical abstract

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来源期刊
Agronomy for Sustainable Development
Agronomy for Sustainable Development 农林科学-农艺学
CiteScore
10.70
自引率
8.20%
发文量
108
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Agronomy for Sustainable Development (ASD) is a peer-reviewed scientific journal of international scope, dedicated to publishing original research articles, review articles, and meta-analyses aimed at improving sustainability in agricultural and food systems. The journal serves as a bridge between agronomy, cropping, and farming system research and various other disciplines including ecology, genetics, economics, and social sciences. ASD encourages studies in agroecology, participatory research, and interdisciplinary approaches, with a focus on systems thinking applied at different scales from field to global levels. Research articles published in ASD should present significant scientific advancements compared to existing knowledge, within an international context. Review articles should critically evaluate emerging topics, and opinion papers may also be submitted as reviews. Meta-analysis articles should provide clear contributions to resolving widely debated scientific questions.
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