The heterogeneous role of party affiliation in the runner-up effect

A recent finding establishes that second-place candidates perform substantially better over third-place candidates in future electoral races. We show that this estimated effect masks substantial heterogeneity with respect to the party affiliation of the candidates. Only runner-ups without a major party backing in election $t$ have significant prospects over the third-place candidates in election $t+1$, in terms of either recontesting or winning. Our finding suggests that political parties and voters, while strategically coordinating on the runner-ups in election $t+1$, also take into account the party backing as a potential signal of their intrinsic quality.