年轻胃癌的全球负担：2019 年全球疾病负担研究的系统趋势分析

IF 6 1区医学 Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

Gastric Cancer Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI:10.1007/s10120-024-01494-6

Yunhao Li, Anne I. Hahn, Monika Laszkowska, Fang Jiang, Ann G. Zauber, Wai K. Leung

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景虽然胃癌在全球范围内普遍呈下降趋势，但年轻发病者（40 岁以下）胃癌的时间趋势仍不确定。方法我们从《2019 年全球疾病、伤害和风险因素负担研究》（GBD）中提取了横断面数据。通过包括发病率和死亡率在内的指标评估了1990年至2019年的胃癌负担，这些指标按照社会人口指数（SDI）和年龄或性别组进行了全球、国家和地区层面的分类。连接点回归分析用于确定有显著变化的具体年份。结果全球年轻胃癌发病率从 1990 年的 2.20（每 10 万人）下降到 2019 年的 1.65（AAPC：- 0.95；95% 置信区间 [CI] - 1.25 至 - 0.65；P < 0.001）。晚期癌症发病率也从 1990 年的 59.53（每 10 万人）下降到 2019 年的 41.26（美国癌症协会：- 1.23；95% 置信区间 [CI] - 1.39 至 - 1.06；P <；0.001）。尽管总体呈下降趋势，但从 2015 年到 2019 年，年轻发病癌症的发病率显著上升（年度百分比变化 [APC]：1.39；95% CI 0.06 至 2.74；P = 0.041），而晚期发病癌症的发病率没有观察到上升趋势。在此期间，年轻癌症患者和晚期癌症患者的死亡率均出现了显著下降（AAPC：1.82；95% CI：0.06 至 2.74；P = 0.041）：- 1.82; 95% CI - 2.15 to - 1.56; P < 0.001 和 AAPC：- 1.69，95% CI - 1.79 至 - 1.59；P <0.001）。自 1990 年以来，这两个年龄组的发病率和死亡率的男女比例一直在上升。虽然 SDI 高的国家晚发胃癌的发病率下降幅度更大（AAPC 变化斜率：- 0.20，P = 0.004），但在年轻发病者中却没有观察到这种情况（AAPC 变化斜率：- 0.11，P = 0.13）。然而，自 2015 年以来，年轻胃癌的发病率出现了小幅但显著的上升趋势。在男性和高SDI国家中，年轻胃癌发病率的下降存在差异。这些发现有助于为今后预防年轻人患胃癌的战略提供参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Global burden of young-onset gastric cancer: a systematic trend analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

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Global burden of young-onset gastric cancer: a systematic trend analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

While gastric cancer is generally declining globally, the temporal trend of young-onset (< 40 years) gastric cancer remains uncertain. We performed this analysis to determine the temporal trends of young-onset gastric cancer compared to late-onset cancer (≥ 40 years).

Methods

We extracted cross-sectional data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The burden of gastric cancer from 1990 to 2019 was assessed through indicators including incidence and mortality rates, which were classified at global, national, and regional levels, and according to socio-demographic indexes (SDI) and age or sex groups. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify specific years with significant changes. The correlation between AAPC with countries' average SDI was tested by Pearson’s Test.

Results

The global incidence rate of young-onset gastric cancer decreased from 2.20 (per 100,000) in 1990 to 1.65 in 2019 (AAPC: − 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI] − 1.25 to − 0.65; P < 0.001). Late-onset cancer incidence also decreased from 59.53 (per 100,000) in 1990 to 41.26 in 2019 (AAPC: − 1.23; 95% CI − 1.39 to − 1.06, P < 0.001). Despite an overall decreasing trend, the incidence rate of young-onset cancer demonstrated a significant increase from 2015 to 2019 (annual percentage change [APC]: 1.39; 95% CI 0.06 to 2.74; P = 0.041), whereas no upward trend was observed in late-onset cancer. Mortality rates of young- and late-onset cancer both exhibited a significant decline during this period (AAPC: − 1.82; 95% CI − 2.15 to − 1.56; P < 0.001 and AAPC: − 1.69, 95% CI − 1.79 to − 1.59; P < 0.001). The male-to-female rate ratio for incidence and mortality in both age groups have been increasing since 1990. While countries with high SDI have had a greater decline in the incidence of late-onset gastric cancer (slope of AAPC change: − 0.20, P = 0.004), it was not observed in young-onset cancer (slope of AAPC change: − 0.11, P = 0.13).

Conclusions

The global incidence and mortality rates of both young- and late-onset gastric cancer have decreased since 1990. However, the incidence rate of young-onset cancer has demonstrated a small but significant upward trend since 2015. There was disparity in the decline in young-onset gastric cancer among male and high SDI countries. These findings could help to inform future strategies in preventing gastric cancer in younger individuals.

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来源期刊

Gastric Cancer 医学-胃肠肝病学

CiteScore

14.70

自引率

2.70%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Gastric Cancer is an esteemed global forum that focuses on various aspects of gastric cancer research, treatment, and biology worldwide. The journal promotes a diverse range of content, including original articles, case reports, short communications, and technical notes. It also welcomes Letters to the Editor discussing published articles or sharing viewpoints on gastric cancer topics. Review articles are predominantly sought after by the Editor, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the field. With a dedicated and knowledgeable editorial team, the journal is committed to providing exceptional support and ensuring high levels of author satisfaction. In fact, over 90% of published authors have expressed their intent to publish again in our esteemed journal.