行为博弈论的集体智慧

IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
Shu Huang, Russell Golman
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们运用众智文献中的一种算法来优化组合行为博弈论模型,从而更准确地预测单次同时行动博弈中的战略选择。我们发现,七个行为博弈论模型的最优加权平均值对样本外选择行为的预测效果明显优于任何一个单独的模型。众多行为博弈论模型比任何一个模型都更明智。不同的策略选择模型通过捕捉不同的行为模式来实现互补。这种模型的多样性丰富了行为博弈论领域。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The collective wisdom of behavioral game theory

We apply an algorithm from the wisdom-of-crowds literature to optimally combine behavioral game theory models to more accurately predict strategic choice in one-shot, simultaneous-move games. We find that the optimal weighted average of seven behavioral game theory models predicts out-of-sample choice behavior significantly better than any of the individual models. The crowd of behavioral game theory models is wiser than any single one of them. Different strategic choice models complement each other by capturing distinct patterns of behavior. The field of behavioral game theory is enriched by having this diversity of models.

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来源期刊
Economic Theory
Economic Theory ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
68
期刊介绍: The purpose of Economic Theory is to provide an outlet for research - in all areas of economics based on rigorous theoretical reasoning, and - on specific topics in mathematics which is motivated by the analysis of economic problems. Economic Theory''s scope encompasses - but is not limited to - the following fields. - classical and modern equilibrium theory - cooperative and non-cooperative game theory - macroeconomics - social choice and welfare - uncertainty and information, intertemporal economics (including dynamical systems) - public economics - international and developmental economics - financial economics, money and banking - industrial organization Economic Theory also publishes surveys if they clearly picture the basic ideas at work in some areas, the essential technical apparatus which is used and the central questions which remain open. The development of a productive dialectic between stylized facts and abstract formulations requires that economic relevance be at the forefront. Thus, correct, and innovative, mathematical analysis is not enough; it must be motivated by - and contribute to - the understanding of substantive economic problems. Officially cited as: Econ Theory
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