Diallel crosses in Picea abies V. Can early testing predict long-term performance?

Genetic variation and performance of up to 40-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) families from half-diallel crosses made in natural populations where studied, and the results were compared with results from nursery test of seedlings (1-2 years from seed) and short-term farm-field tests at 6-10 years from seed. The diallel analyses revealed significant levels of additive genetic variance for growth and phenology traits. The non-additive genetic variance was generally small to moderate. Strong genetic correlations for growth performance were found between the short-term and long-term trials but not between the nursery and long-term trials. Similarly, genetic correlations for phenology traits were strong between short-term trials and long-term trials, whereas the nursery tests generally did not predict phenology at older age well. The findings indicate that early selection for growth and adaptive traits based on short-term trials is effective for improvement of long-term performance in field if the test site is not outside the normal range of deployment of the reproductive material.