Modelling land suitability and development potential options for irrigable and rainfed agricultural scenarios in Ethiopia

Despite being a significant sector in Ethiopia, agriculture is mainly run in rainfed system. However, it is imperative to look for irrigation systems and their suitability to the country's agriculture. The study's objectives were to (1) map areas appropriate for irrigable and rainfed agriculture and examine gaps with current active areas, (2) model possible development for irrigation and rainfed scenarios, and (3) offer evidence-based decision support for agricultural investment. Land features, agroecology, population density, market accessibility and length of growing seasons were considered as important indicators when determining land suitability for each scenario. Geographically weighted regression was used to model these indicators. The results show that approximately 359,360 (34%) and 13,802 km² (1.6%) are highly suitable areas for irrigation and rainfed agriculture, respectively. However, Ethiopia's production depends on areas moderately suitable for rainfed agriculture, but these areas are highly suitable for irrigation rather, indicating that it is unfortunate that the areas suitable for irrigation are used for rainfed agriculture so far. In terms of development potential, areas of approximately 71,317 (7%) and 347,435 km² (33%) had the highest and a high irrigation potential, respectively, while areas with rainfed agriculture had approximately 33,821 (3%) and 105,013 km² (10%) with the highest and a high development potential, respectively. These analyses suggest that the country has untapped potential for agricultural development in both scenarios, but this remains within the scope identified in this study.