Hydrometeorological Trends in a Low-Gradient Forested Watershed on the Southeastern Atlantic Coastal Plain in the USA

Hydrology and meteorological data from relatively undisturbed watersheds aid in identifying effects on ecosystem services, tracking hydroclimatic trends, and reducing model uncertainties. Sustainable forest, water, and infrastructure management depends on assessing the impacts of extreme events and land use change on flooding, droughts, and biogeochemical processes. For example, global climate models predict more frequent high-intensity storms and longer dry periods for the southeastern USA. We summarized 17 years (2005–2021) of hydrometeorological data recorded in the 52 km2, third-order Turkey Creek watershed at the Santee Experimental Forest (SEF), Southeastern Coastal Plain, USA. This is a non-tidal headwater system of the Charleston Harbor estuary. The study period included a wide range of weather conditions; annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) ranged from 994 mm and 1212 mm in 2007 to 2243 mm and 1063 in 2015, respectively. The annual runoff coefficient (ROC) varied from 0.09 in 2007 (with water table (WT) as deep as 2.4 m below surface) to 0.52 in 2015 (with frequently ponded WT conditions), with an average of 0.22. Although the average P (1470 mm) was 11% higher than the historic 1964–1976 average (1320 mm), no significant (α= 0.05) trend was found in the annual P (p = 0.11), ROC (p = 0.17) or runoff (p = 0.27). Runoff occurred on 76.4% of all days in the study period, exceeding 20 mm/day for 1.25% of all days, mostly due to intense storms in the summer and lower ET demand in the winter. No-flow conditions were common during most of the summer growing season. WT recharge occurred during water-surplus conditions, and storm-event base flow contributed 23–47% of the total runoff as estimated using a hydrograph separation method. Storm-event peak discharge in the Turkey Creek was dominated by shallow subsurface runoff and was correlated with 48 h precipitation totals. Estimated precipitation intensity–duration–frequency and flood frequency relationships were found to be larger than those found by NOAA for the 1893–2002 period (for durations ≥ 3 h), and by USGS regional frequencies (for ≥10-year return intervals), respectively, for the same location. We recommend an integrated analysis of these data together with available water quality data to (1) assess the impacts of rising tides on the hydroperiod and biogeochemical processes in riparian forests of the estuary headwaters, (2) validate rainfall–runoff models including watershed scale models to assess land use and climate change on hydrology and water quality, and (3) inform watershed restoration goals, strategies, and infrastructure design in coastal watersheds.