玉米粮食需求的贡献和预测:印度尼西亚库泰卡尔塔内加拉地区的经验证据

Aini Aini, Ida Bagus Made Agung Dwijatenaya
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在分析玉米粮食需求的贡献和预测。案例研究在印度尼西亚的库泰-卡尔塔内加拉地区(Kutai Kartanegara Regency)进行。所使用的数据来自库泰-卡尔塔内加拉行政区农业和畜牧业服务部以及中央统计局的二手数据。使用的分析工具包括:使用交叉表分析法分析分区在满足玉米粮食需求方面的贡献,使用简单回归分析法进行预测,以及使用几何人口增长率通过人口增长预测需求。研究结果表明,没有群岛国家首都(IKN)或有了群岛国家首都(IKN),玉米产量与需求之间的差额就是盈余。库泰-卡尔塔内加拉地区在满足群岛国家首都(IKN)玉米需求方面所做的贡献,无论是假设人口为 150 万还是 450 万,都能达到较高水平。六个分区也达到了高标准。三宝嘉分区满足了对高标准 IKN 玉米的需求。Muara Jawa、Sebulu 和 Muara Kaman 分区提供了低类别玉米。同时,Loa Janan 和 Tenggarong Seberang 分区未能提供捐助。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Contribution and projections of corn food needs: Emperical evidence in Kutai Kartanegara Regency, Indonesia
This research aims to analyze the contribution and projection of corn food needs. Case study in Kutai Kartanegara Regency, Indonesia. The data used is secondary data sourced from the Kutai Kartanegara Regency Agriculture and Livestock Service and the Central Statistics Agency. The analytical tools used are for sub-district contributions in meeting corn food needs using cross-table analysis, for projections using simple regression analysis, and for projections of needs through population growth using geometric population growth rates. The research results show that the difference between production and corn needs without the National Capital of the Archipelago (IKN), or with the presence of IKN, is a surplus. The contribution of Kutai Kartanegara Regency in meeting the needs of IKN corn, both assuming a population of 1.5 million people and 4.5 million people, has been able to contribute in the high category. Six example sub-districts have also been able to contribute with high criteria. Samboja Sub-District contributes to the need for high category IKN corn. Muara Jawa, Sebulu and Muara Kaman Sub-districts contributed in the low category. Meanwhile, Loa Janan and Tenggarong Seberang Sub-districts have not been able to contribute.
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