{"title":"利用 REMIND(3.1.0 版)建立系统背景下的长期工业能源需求和二氧化碳排放模型","authors":"M. Pehl, Felix Schreyer, Gunnar Luderer","doi":"10.5194/gmd-17-2015-2024","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This paper presents an extension of industry modelling within the REMIND integrated assessment model to industry subsectors and a projection of future industry subsector activity and energy demand for different baseline scenarios for use with the REMIND model. The industry sector is the largest greenhouse-gas-emitting energy demand sector and is considered a mitigation bottleneck. At the same time, industry subsectors are heterogeneous and face distinct emission mitigation challenges. By extending the multi-region, general equilibrium integrated assessment model REMIND to an explicit representation of four industry subsectors (cement, chemicals, steel, and other industry production), along with subsector-specific carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), we are able to investigate industry emission mitigation strategies in the context of the entire energy–economy–climate system, covering mitigation options ranging from reduced demand for industrial goods, fuel switching, and electrification to endogenous energy efficiency increases and carbon capture. We also present the derivation of both activity and final energy demand trajectories for the industry subsectors for use with the REMIND model in baseline scenarios, based on short-term continuation of historic trends and long-term global convergence. The system allows for selective variation of specific subsector activity and final energy demand across scenarios and regions to create consistent scenarios for a wide range of socioeconomic drivers and scenario story lines, like the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).\n","PeriodicalId":12799,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Modelling long-term industry energy demand and CO2 emissions in the system context using REMIND (version 3.1.0)\",\"authors\":\"M. Pehl, Felix Schreyer, Gunnar Luderer\",\"doi\":\"10.5194/gmd-17-2015-2024\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract. This paper presents an extension of industry modelling within the REMIND integrated assessment model to industry subsectors and a projection of future industry subsector activity and energy demand for different baseline scenarios for use with the REMIND model. The industry sector is the largest greenhouse-gas-emitting energy demand sector and is considered a mitigation bottleneck. At the same time, industry subsectors are heterogeneous and face distinct emission mitigation challenges. By extending the multi-region, general equilibrium integrated assessment model REMIND to an explicit representation of four industry subsectors (cement, chemicals, steel, and other industry production), along with subsector-specific carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), we are able to investigate industry emission mitigation strategies in the context of the entire energy–economy–climate system, covering mitigation options ranging from reduced demand for industrial goods, fuel switching, and electrification to endogenous energy efficiency increases and carbon capture. We also present the derivation of both activity and final energy demand trajectories for the industry subsectors for use with the REMIND model in baseline scenarios, based on short-term continuation of historic trends and long-term global convergence. The system allows for selective variation of specific subsector activity and final energy demand across scenarios and regions to create consistent scenarios for a wide range of socioeconomic drivers and scenario story lines, like the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).\\n\",\"PeriodicalId\":12799,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geoscientific Model Development\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geoscientific Model Development\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2015-2024\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geoscientific Model Development","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2015-2024","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Modelling long-term industry energy demand and CO2 emissions in the system context using REMIND (version 3.1.0)
Abstract. This paper presents an extension of industry modelling within the REMIND integrated assessment model to industry subsectors and a projection of future industry subsector activity and energy demand for different baseline scenarios for use with the REMIND model. The industry sector is the largest greenhouse-gas-emitting energy demand sector and is considered a mitigation bottleneck. At the same time, industry subsectors are heterogeneous and face distinct emission mitigation challenges. By extending the multi-region, general equilibrium integrated assessment model REMIND to an explicit representation of four industry subsectors (cement, chemicals, steel, and other industry production), along with subsector-specific carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), we are able to investigate industry emission mitigation strategies in the context of the entire energy–economy–climate system, covering mitigation options ranging from reduced demand for industrial goods, fuel switching, and electrification to endogenous energy efficiency increases and carbon capture. We also present the derivation of both activity and final energy demand trajectories for the industry subsectors for use with the REMIND model in baseline scenarios, based on short-term continuation of historic trends and long-term global convergence. The system allows for selective variation of specific subsector activity and final energy demand across scenarios and regions to create consistent scenarios for a wide range of socioeconomic drivers and scenario story lines, like the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
期刊介绍:
Geoscientific Model Development (GMD) is an international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and public discussion of the description, development, and evaluation of numerical models of the Earth system and its components. The following manuscript types can be considered for peer-reviewed publication:
* geoscientific model descriptions, from statistical models to box models to GCMs;
* development and technical papers, describing developments such as new parameterizations or technical aspects of running models such as the reproducibility of results;
* new methods for assessment of models, including work on developing new metrics for assessing model performance and novel ways of comparing model results with observational data;
* papers describing new standard experiments for assessing model performance or novel ways of comparing model results with observational data;
* model experiment descriptions, including experimental details and project protocols;
* full evaluations of previously published models.