后方的经济刺激：二战支出对各州的影响

IF 7.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI:10.1162/rest_a_01432

Gillian Brunet

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引用次数: 6

摘要

我利用 1940-1945 年美国战争生产支出的新数字化合同数据分析了美国在第二次世界大战中的军费开支对宏观经济的影响。我发现两年的个人收入乘数为 0.34，三年的个人收入乘数为 0.49。个人收入乘数可能大大低估了国内生产总值乘数，低估幅度可能高达 50%。就业估算表明，在相同的时间跨度内，每个就业年的成本分别为 405 013 美元和 232 268 美元（按 2015 年美元计算），这表明创造的就业岗位有限。我还发现了负面规模效应的证据：较大的正向支出冲击与系统性较小的乘数估计值相关。

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Stimulus on the Home Front: The State-Level Effects of WWII Spending

I use newly-digitized contract data on U.S. war production spending over 1940-1945 to analyze the macroeconomic effects of U.S. military spending in World War II. I find personal income multipliers of 0.34 over two years and 0.49 over three years. Personal income multipliers may substantially understate GDP multipliers, perhaps by as much as 50%. Employment estimates imply costs per job-year over the same time horizons of $405,013 and $232,268 in 2015 dollars, suggesting job creation was limited. I also find evidence of negative scale effects: larger positive spending shocks are associated with systematically smaller multiplier estimates.

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来源期刊

Review of Economics and Statistics Multiple-

CiteScore

8.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

175

期刊介绍： The Review of Economics and Statistics is a 100-year-old general journal of applied (especially quantitative) economics. Edited at the Harvard Kennedy School, the Review has published some of the most important articles in empirical economics.