印度尼西亚危及国家的经济、国防和行政冲突的脆弱国家指数评估:计量经济学研究

Ilyasin Aditya Rahman, Sri Suharsih, Joko Waluyo
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摘要

印度尼西亚幅员辽阔,这对维护其领土主权构成了挑战。冲突难以预测,因此有必要预测风险。根据 "脆弱国家指数"(Fragile States Index)2019 年的研究结果,印尼在 "令人担忧 "类国家中排名第三。考虑到冲突是未来难以预测的不确定因素,有必要制定冲突风险或战争发生概率的战略,以便印尼经济能够适当恢复。本研究的目的是确定东盟(印度尼西亚、马来西亚、文莱达鲁萨兰国、新加坡、巴布亚新几内亚、菲律宾、东帝汶、缅甸、柬埔寨、老挝、泰国、越南)、澳新联盟(澳大利亚和新西兰)、美国和中国的冲突风险,这将对印度尼西亚的经济稳定产生影响。有必要进行冲突风险评估,以减少印尼冲突的发生。所使用的分析工具是使用交叉表分析和热图风险进行定量描述。本研究使用二手数据对军事和经济实力进行比较。考虑到印尼具有种族、文化和宗教多样性,本研究中关于印尼人口的有趣发现对该国的脆弱性具有很大影响。因此,印尼需要在发生冲突时降低风险,以实现印尼在2045年成为世界第五大国内生产总值(GDP)国的目标。本研究的结论是,印尼的人口、国内生产总值、官方汇率和实际利率与脆弱国家指数相比均处于 "高 "状态,这意味着必须立即关注严重的状况,以最大限度地减少冲突。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Fragile State Index Assessment of Economic, Defence and Administrative Conflicts Endangering States in Indonesia: An Econometric Study
Indonesia's vast territory is a challenge to maintaining its territorial sovereignty. Conflict is difficult to predict so it is necessary to anticipate risks. According to the results of research conducted by the Fragile States Index in 2019, Indonesia is ranked in the third country in the worrying category. A need for a strategy in the event of risk of conflict or probability of war occurring so that the Indonesian economy can be properly recovered considering a conflict is an uncertainty that is difficult to predict in the future. The purpose of this study is to determine in terms of the risk of conflict in ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, Singapore, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Timor Leste, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam), ANZUS (Australia and New Zealand), United States of America and China which has an impact on Indonesia's economic stability. A need to make a conflict risk assessment in mitigating the occurrence of conflict in Indonesia. The analysis tool used is quantitative descriptive using Cross Tab analysis and Heat Map Risk. This study used secondary data for comparison of military and economic strength. The interesting findings in this study of Indonesia's population turned out to have a high influence on the country's vulnerability considering that Indonesia has ethnic, cultural, and religious diversity. Therefore, Indonesia needs to mitigate risks in the event of conflict so that in realizing the projection of Indonesia becoming the 5th largest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) country in the world in 2045 can be realized properly. The conclusion of this study Population, GDP, Official Exchange Rate, and Real Interest Rate against the Fragile States Index in Indonesia are included in High condition which means that serious conditions must be given immediate attention to minimize conflict.
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