评估纽约市城市道路分心驾驶撞车事故的严重程度:使用随机参数 logit 模型进行时间分析

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION
Sina Rejali , Kayvan Aghabayk , MohammadAli Seyfi , Oscar Oviedo-Trespalacios
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引用次数: 0

摘要

分心驾驶是道路安全的最大风险之一。本研究旨在更深入地了解影响纽约市分心驾驶撞车严重程度的因素,并通过采用撞车后视角,探讨 2016 年至 2019 年期间不同变量对撞车结果影响的时间稳定性。本研究采用了警方报告的纽约市城市道路私家车单车分心驾驶相关碰撞事故数据。研究考虑了三种伤害类别:无伤害、轻伤和重伤。为了调查碰撞的严重程度并识别未观察到的异质性,采用了随机参数 logit 模型。结果显示,包括驾驶员特征、车辆和时间特征以及碰撞属性在内的多种变量在解释与分心相关的碰撞严重程度方面具有重要意义。此外,还进行了一系列似然比检验,以确定估计变量在此期间的时间变化。时间分析的结果表明,随机参数模型的估计变量在 4 年期间并不稳定,这可能是车载技术的发展和分心的新来源等变化趋势造成的。不过,在进一步解释分心相关碰撞事故和驾驶员行为变化时,应考虑其复杂性。本研究为规划者和政策制定者提供了一系列政策影响,旨在正视导致分心驾驶撞车事故中受伤严重程度较高的因素。这包括向年轻驾驶员等高风险人群提供分心驾驶的针对性信息,同时将教育、宣传计划、加重处罚和密集巡逻结合起来。加强路边照明和声音边缘线等工程措施可以有效减少分心驾驶事故,尤其是在减少深夜分心驾驶事故方面。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing distracted driving crash severities at New York City urban roads: A temporal analysis using random parameters logit model

Distracted driving poses one of the most significant risks to road safety. The current study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the factors affecting the severity of distracted driving crashes in New York City and to explore the temporal stability in the effects of different variables on crash outcomes in 2016 to 2019 period by adopting a post-crash perspective. The police-reported data of single-vehicle distraction-related crashes of private cars on urban roads of New York City was used for this study. Three injury categories were considered: no injury, minor injury, and severe injury. To investigate crash severities and identify unobserved heterogeneities, a random parameters logit model was conducted. The results revealed that a wide variety of variables including driver traits, vehicle and temporal characteristics, and crash attributes were found to be significant in explaining distracted-related crash severities. Furthermore, a series of likelihood ratio tests were conducted to identify the temporal shifts of estimated variables during the period. The results of the temporal analysis showed that the estimated variables of the random parameters model were unstable during the 4-year period, which may be the result of shifting trends such as the development of in-vehicle technologies, and new sources of distraction. However, the complex nature of distracted-related crashes and changes in driver behavior should be considered for further interpretation. This research provides a set of policy implications for planners and policymakers, aiming at facing factors contributing to a higher level of injury severity in distracted driving crashes. This includes providing targeted information on distracted driving to high-risk groups, such as younger drivers, and also combining education, awareness programs, higher penalties, and intense patrolling. Engineering measures such as enhanced roadside illumination and audible edge lines can be effective, especially in reducing late-night distracted driving crashes.

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来源期刊
IATSS Research
IATSS Research TRANSPORTATION-
CiteScore
6.40
自引率
6.20%
发文量
44
审稿时长
42 weeks
期刊介绍: First published in 1977 as an international journal sponsored by the International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences, IATSS Research has contributed to the dissemination of interdisciplinary wisdom on ideal mobility, particularly in Asia. IATSS Research is an international refereed journal providing a platform for the exchange of scientific findings on transportation and safety across a wide range of academic fields, with particular emphasis on the links between scientific findings and practice in society and cultural contexts. IATSS Research welcomes submission of original research articles and reviews that satisfy the following conditions: 1.Relevant to transportation and safety, and the multiple impacts of transportation systems on security, human health, and the environment. 2.Contains important policy and practical implications based on scientific evidence in the applicable academic field. In addition to welcoming general submissions, IATSS Research occasionally plans and publishes special feature sections and special issues composed of invited articles addressing specific topics.
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